June 2000

PRODUCTION BRIEFS

2000/01

China: Lower Wheat Yields Expected

China’s wheat production estimate for 2000/01 is 104.0 million tons, down 3.0 million from last month, due to lower forecast winter wheat yields. Unfavorably warm and dry weather during the peak growth period is expected to reduce estimated yields to 3.78 tons per hectare, slightly below the 5-year average but higher than the yields in 1996/97 and 1998/99.

Soil moisture levels dropped sharply across northern China from March through May and water for irrigation was in short supply. Satellite imagery indicates that non-irrigated crops suffered from stress, especially in southern and western wheat-growing provinces. Light showers in mid-May improved moisture conditions in northern China for wheat in the heading and filling stages, but the rain likely came too late to aid the crop in southern areas where it was near maturity.

Since June 1, more than 6 inches of rain have fallen over most of Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei and eastern Sichuan, areas where harvesting was already underway. The rain quickly saturated the soils and caused local flooding. Although the rain was needed for summer crop germination, it may have caused wheat harvest delays and quality problems. More rain is forecast in these provinces and farther north in Shandong and the Northeast in the next few days.

Eastern Europe: Widespread Drought and High Temperatures Reduce Wheat Production

Eastern Europe’s 2000/01 wheat crop is estimated at 28.7 million tons, down 9 percent from last month and about on par with last year’s 28.6 million ton crop. Harvested area is estimated at 8.9 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 7 percent from last year’s rain-soaked crop. Especially hard hit by this year’s combined spring drought and above average temperatures were the countries of Hungary, Romania, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria. The spring moisture deficit was magnified in these southern Balkan countries because winter precipitation was also below normal. The eastern Europe drought began in mid-April and has continued throughout May and into June. However, the northern part of eastern Europe, particularly Poland, has recently been receiving occasional rainfall which may prevent a further reduction in yield potential. Wheat in eastern Europe is maturing ahead of normal due to the warm, dry conditions, and harvest should be underway by the end of June.

Pakistan: Wheat Estimated Higher

Pakistan wheat production for 2000/01 is estimated at 20.0 million metric tons, up 2.0 million from last month and 1.3 million from the previous record set in 1997/98. Area is estimated at 8.6 million hectares, an increase of 0.1 million from last month and 0.2 million above the previous record set in 1995/96. Yield is estimated at 2.33 tons per hectare, 10 percent higher than last month's estimate. Exceptionally high wheat yields were a result of a number of factors, including more timely planting, higher seeding rates, increased input usage, and nearly ideal weather. Over 80 percent of Pakistan’s wheat is irrigated.

Ukraine: Unfavorable Conditions Hurt Wheat Crop

Wheat output for 2000/01 is estimated at 13.0 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and down 0.5 million from last year. Conditions have been generally unfavorable for winter wheat, which comprises roughly 95 percent of total Ukraine wheat production. Persistent dryness last fall hampered winter-grain establishment, and although conditions improved over the winter, a significant portion of the crop required replanting. Two episodes of sub-freezing weather during May resulted in localized frost damage. Output will be further limited by an increasing lack of fuel, fertilizers, machinery, and other agricultural inputs, which will have a negative impact on yield potential and the harvest campaign.

India: Wheat Benefits from Favorable Growing and Harvest Conditions

Indian wheat production for 2000/01 is estimated at a record 71.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month. Area is estimated at 26.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month. An expected decline in Gujarat and Rajasthan due to drought is being offset by higher production in other states. Wheat fields across northern and most of central India experienced favorably cool weather and abundant sunshine during much of February and March; moreover, rainfall and the availability of irrigation were adequate during critical growth stages. The vast majority of wheat production in India occurs under irrigation. April harvesting conditions were ideal with temperatures hovering above 100 degrees Fahrenheit and no rain or hail.

World: Oilseed Production to Rise in The United States and Foreign Countries

World total oilseed production for 2000/01 is forecast at 310 million tons, up about 12 million or 4 percent from 1999/2000. The U.S. crop is expected to account for much of the change, as output here is forecast up 9.6 million tons year-to-year to 91.6 million. Meanwhile, total foreign output is forecast up 2.5 million tons to 218.4 million. A large supply of palm oil has depressed vegetable oil prices on the world market, but improving economic conditions in Asia have resulted in improved demand for protein meals.

World: Cotton Production Falls on Foreign Sector Output

World cotton production for 2000/01 is forecast at 87.0 million bales, down 0.2 million from 1999/2000 as the expected larger U.S. crop fails to completely offset a drop in foreign cotton output. The forecast includes a 3 percent drop in foreign production to 68.0 million bales, down 2.2 million from 1999/2000. Foreign area is likely to fall in 2000/01, and a return to normal yields in central and south central Asia is anticipated to reduce production there. The U.S. crop is forecast to rise an estimated 12 percent to 19.0 million bales for 2000/01.

1999/00

Argentina: Corn Production Revised Higher

Argentina’s 1999/2000 corn crop is estimated to reach 16 million tons, up 0.5 million tons or 3 percent from last month’s estimate. Area is unchanged at 3.1 million hectares. The crop is currently being harvested. Yields reported thus far have been very good, ranging from 6.0 - 6.3 MT/ha in the provinces of Santa Fe, Cordoba and Buenos Aires. Heavy rains during the end of April and in mid-May slowed harvest progress. Entre Rios and Santa Fe were the provinces most affected by wet conditions that halted harvesting but did not impact yield significantly. The harvest pace has rebounded in recent weeks of dry weather, although it continues to lag behind last year’s pace. As of June 2, approximately 70 percent of the crop had been harvested compared to 80 percent at the same time last year. Harvest is generally complete by August.

Pakistan: Cotton Crop Estimated Higher

Pakistan’s 1999/2000 cotton crop is estimated at 8.4 million bales, up 0.2 million from last month and up 2.1 million or 33 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 3.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.1 million or 3 percent from last year. Despite dryer than normal conditions in cotton areas during the monsoon season, higher than expected gin arrivals have been reported. A comparison of the final production number versus arrival figures since the general sales tax was applied to cotton lint sales in 1995/96 reveals an increasing amount of unreported cotton (final minus arrival). Assuming a percentage similar to the two previous seasons’ unreported sales and applying this percentage (10.5%) to the latest arrival data results in the current production figure.

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