May 2000
For the 2000/01 season, the major U.S. wheat competitors
(European Union, Argentina, Australia, and Canada) are forecast
to increase production by roughly 5 million tons due to increased
area. The major importers (including China, FSU-12, Eastern
Europe, Egypt, Iran, Morocco, and Brazil) are forecast to have a
reduction in wheat production by about 9 million tons from the
previous year due mainly to lower yield projections. Morocco and
Iran are down significantly from last season's poor crop due to
drought. Also, reduced area in China due to pricing policy has
led to a forecast of decreased output. Although Russia and
Ukraine output is forecast slightly above last season, production
is still substantially below the 10-year average. For the
competitors, the European Union crop is forecast at a record
level due to increased area and yield. Australia and Canada are
forecast down slightly from last season due to lower yield and
Argentina is virtually unchanged as an increase in area offsets a
decrease in yield. For the past three years, the major
competitors have increased production while wheat output in the
United States has decreased. As U.S. producers respond to low
wheat prices by cutting area, the major competitors are
continuing to expand production.