March 2000

PRODUCTION BRIEFS

South Africa: February Rainfall Benefits Corn

South Africa’s 1999/2000 corn crop is estimated at 9.5 million tons, up 0.5 million or 6 percent from last month and up 23 percent from last year’s revised output. The estimated yield of 2.38 tons per hectare is higher than the previous two years and above the 5-year average. Widespread rainfall in January and February created favorable moisture conditions for corn as it entered the filling stage. In addition, temperatures have been seasonable and there was little vegetative stress during the past two months. Very heavy rainfall in early February caused localized flooding, water-logging, and disease problems in a small portion of the northern part of the Maize Triangle, resulting in lower estimated yield in the affected areas. These losses will be offset by higher yields in the central and western Maize Triangle, where the rainfall was mostly beneficial. Tropical cyclone Leon-Eline, which struck Mozambique and Zimbabwe on February 22, had little impact on South Africa’s summer grain crops.

Australia: Wheat Output at Record Level, Barley Revised Lower

USDA estimates Australia’s 1999/2000 wheat output at a record 24.5 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 2.5 million or 11 percent from last year. Although there is no change in area this month, wheat plantings of 12.0 million hectares is the largest area since 12.1 million was planted in 1984/85. Weather over much of the grain growing regions provided significant rainfall amounts, particularly during the latter portion of the season boosting yields in later planted crops, but negatively impacting quality in the early planted wheat.

Australian barley production is estimated at 5.5 million tons, down 0.2 million from last month’s estimate and down 21 percent from 1998/99. Area is estimated at 2.4 million hectares, down 0.1 million this month and down 22 percent from last year. The glut of world feed grain supplies and subsequent lower prices led to the smallest area planted to barley in ten years.

Argentina: Soybean Production Rises As Area Increases

Argentina's 1999/2000 soybean production is estimated at a record 20 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month, and 1 percent above last year. Harvested area is estimated at a record 8.2 million hectares, up 3 percent from last month and up 6 percent from last season. Planting was completed in early February. Rainfall during the previous two months has been beneficial for crop development; however, seasonal rainfall totals remain below normal in eastern growing areas. In Entre Rios province, where 3-4 percent of the total crop is produced, the long-term dryness has resulted in less than favorable growing conditions and delayed crop development. The crop in portions of southeastern Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires has also suffered some drought stress. On the other hand, the western part of the growing region has experienced very favorable weather and many areas are expecting above average yields. Overall, the crop condition and yield potential are very good. The majority of the crop varies in stage from flowering to pod-filling. Harvest typically begins in March and continues into July.

Bangladesh: Rice Output to Break Last Year’s Record

The 1999/2000 Bangladesh rice crop is estimated at a record 20.25 million tons (milled basis), up 0.6 million from last month and up 2 percent from last season. Harvested area forecast remains unchanged at 10.5 million hectares. The first of the three crops, the aus was harvested at expected levels, while the aman or second crop exceeded production expectations. The third crop, boro, will be harvested in May and is reportedly doing well. Domestic prices have weakened and fallen below the cost of imports. The impact of consecutive record rice harvests has lowered import projections. Rice is the most important food grain in Bangladesh. It is grown in three seasons and planted on nearly three-fourths of the country’s cultivated land. During the past decade, seeded area has remained relatively stable at about 10.5 million hectares. There has been a significant decline in summer (aus) paddy and increase in the higher yielding spring (boro) plantings.

Pakistan: Record Rice Harvest Projected

The 1999/2000 Pakistan rice crop is estimated at a record 5.1 million tons (milled basis), up 0.3 million from last month and up 9 percent from last season. Harvested area is currently estimated at 2.5 million hectares, up 50,000 hectares from last month. The weather during much of the growing season provided better than expected growing conditions. Pakistan sources expect relative farm returns for rice production will remain attractive and therefore area loss to sugarcane will be minimal. Stability among rice varieties is expected to remain with 52 percent of Pakistan’s rice area is estimated be Basmati, and the remainder being non-fragrant (IRRI and other local varieties).

Brazil: Favorable Weather Boosts Prospects for Cotton Crop

Brazilian cotton production is estimated at 2.5 million bales, up 14 percent from last month and 19 percent above last year. Area harvested remains unchanged from last month, at 695,000 hectares but above last year. Production in Brazil has recently shifted from the more traditional states of Parana and Sao Paulo into the states of Mato Grosso, Goias, Bahia, and Minas Gerais. Marginal cotton areas in Parana and Sao Paulo have given way to large mechanized commercial farms, mostly in Mato Grosso. The cotton crop in parts of western Parana and Sao Paulo suffered some damage due to earlier dryness in October to December. However, normal to above normal rainfall during January to February boosted overall yield prospects.

Argentina and Uruguay: Rice Crops Reduced due to Drought

Low prices and drought have led to reduced 1999/2000 rice production in Argentina and Uruguay this season. The 1999/2000 Argentine rice production is estimated at 0.6 million tons (milled basis), 44 percent below last year’s record crop. Harvested area is estimated at 210,000 hectares, down 27 percent from a year ago. In the principal rice growing region, the season began with very dry soils after several months without significant rain. Dry soils combined with low prices led some producers in southern Entre Rios province to plant corn or other crops instead of rice. Dry weather continued to dominate the region, although last month, monthly rainfall was close to normal. However, some areas have not received significant rain for six months and increased irrigation has been necessary to maintain moisture levels. In addition, weed control has been more difficult in fields that have not been adequately flooded. Yields are expected to be below average this season. Reduced profitability from higher fuel costs for pumping and from expected lower output prices may lead to greater abandonment of planted land. As of mid-February, the majority of the crop was flowering. Harvest typically occurs during March and April and has already begun in the northern provinces of Corrientes and Chaco.

Uruguay’s rice growing region has experienced similar weather and growing conditions, having received between 40 to 60 percent of the normal rainfall this season. Uruguay’s production is estimated at 770,000 tons on a milled basis, down 14 percent from last year. Also, harvested area is estimated at 185,000 hectares, or 10 percent below last year.

Brazil: Rice Crop Benefits from Improved Weather and Input Usage

Brazil’s 1999/2000 rice production is estimated at 7.2 million tons (milled basis), up 0.2 million from last month, but 7 percent below last year. Harvested area remains unchanged from last month at 3.6 million hectares, and down 2 percent from last year. Higher than expected fertilizer usage, coupled with adequate irrigation supplies despite the earlier dry weather benefitted rice production. As of February 21, the Rio Grande do Sol Rice Institute reported about 13 percent of the crop was reported to be in the vegetative stage, 51 percent in reproductive stage, 36 percent mature, and 1 percent harvested. Rice prices remain low due to large carryover stocks from 1998/99 in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay.

South Africa: Historical Corn Area and Production Series Revised

South Africa’s National Department of Agriculture recently published a revised corn area and production series which, for the first time, combines data from commercial and the small-scale subsistence farms to create a single national database. There were few changes to the production series, which already included most of the output from subsistence farms, but the new series more accurately represents the total corn area on all farms in the country. USDA has adopted these revisions from 1989/90 through 1998/99.

SOUTH AFRICA

Corn Area, Yield and Production

Source: National Department of Agriculture, South Africa

Return to the Table of Contents