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WORLD DEVELOPMENTS
Austria: Nearly all of Austria's leaf tobacco needs are imported. In 2000, Austrian leaf imports reached 18,830 tons, up slightly from 1999. For 2001 imports are expected to remain near current levels and total 18,230. Cigarette production has remained relatively stable over the last few years. For 2000, production reached 25.7 billion pieces, and is expected to remain near that level in 2001. Austria exports about 45 percent of its cigarette output with Germany being one of its largest markets. AU1014
China: Total leaf production is forecast to increase slightly in 2001 due to high support prices for tobacco and falling prices for other commodities. Flue-cured accounts for nearly 90 percent of China's leaf production and is expected to reach 2.26 million metric tons in 2001, compared to 2.23 million metric tons in 2000. Leaf stocks are forecast to drop by nearly 15 percent as a result of government efforts to maintain production levels in line with demand. CH1019
Egypt: It is illegal to grow leaf tobacco in Egypt. Consequently, all of the leaf tobacco needed for domestic use is imported. In 2000, Egyptian leaf imports totaled 57,000 tons, up from 50,870 in 1999. For 2001, imports are forecast to rise slightly to about 57,500 tons. About two-thirds of the leaf tobacco used in Egypt is for making cigarettes, while the rest is used to make "moassil", or water pipe tobacco. EG1012
France: Total leaf output declined by 3 percent in 2000 due mainly to lower production of dark air-cured and sun-cured tobaccos. For 2001, total leaf production is again expected to decline. France is a net importer of leaf tobacco with Brazil, Argentina and the United States being the top suppliers. For 2000, French leaf imports totaled 28,161 tons, up from 25,352 tons in 1999. For 2001, imports are expected to decline slightly to about 27,200 tons. Leaf exports rose in 2000 to 18,735 tons, but are expected to decline slightly to around 17,000 tons in 2001. Almost 80 percent of French leaf exports are destined to other EU markets. FR1026
Hong Kong: Cigarette production in 2000 rose 49 percent, reaching 9.8 billion pieces as a result of Nanyang Brothers expanding their production capacity. For 2001, cigarette production is estimated to increase to 10.8 billion pieces. Cigarette imports in 2000 totaled 24.2 billion pieces and are expected to increase slightly to 24.5 billion pieces in 2001. The majority of cigarettes imported were re-exported to China and South East Asian countries. HK1025
India: Flue-cured production is expected to drop by 70 percent in 2001 and reach 56,000 metric tons in an effort to reduce flue-cured stock levels. Flue-cured stocks reached record levels due to stagnant demand and an increase in flue-cured production in 2000. Flue-cured stocks in 2001 are estimated to drop by nearly 65 percent and return to normal levels. IN1018.
Italy: Italian tobacco production is estimated at 130,000 tons in 2001, unchanged from 2000 and within Italy's quota. Leaf exports are expected to decline slightly mainly due to lower burley sales. Manufacturer's cut leaf imports in 2001 by 12 percent due to large carry-over stocks from last year. Imports from the United States declined by 28 percent but are expected to recover in 2001. IT1009
Korea: Cigarette production in 2001 is forecast to decline slightly to 95 million pieces in response to the privatization of KTGC and to a rising demand for foreign cigarettes. Cigarette imports are expected to increase 38 percent in 2001. However, cigarette consumption is forecast to decline slightly due to an increase in the average retail price and anti-smoking campaigns. KS1022
Malaysia: Cigarette production declined in 2000 to about 28.4 billion pieces on account of lower domestic consumption and lower exports. Consumption which has been showing an increase in recent years declined in 2000 due to a substantial price increase on account of a hike in the cigarette excise tax. Consequently, Malaysian flue-cured imports declined in 2000 to about 11,626 tons, down from 12,790 tons in 1999. For 2001, cigarette production and consumption are expected to slip further and result in lower flue-cured imports. MY1023
Pakistan: Total leaf production is forecast to decrease 12 percent to 92,100 metric tons due to a campaign by cigarette companies to discourage over production. Market observers expect growers to reduce flue-cured and oriental production and switch to other crops, such as sugarcane and vegetables, in order to avoid problems disposing of excess tobacco during 2001. PK1009
South Africa: Flue-cured production is expected to reach 26,350 metric tons in 2001 as compared to 25,135 tons in 2000. Flue-cured exports are expected to drop by 10 percent or to reach 12,500 tons in 2001. Decreased cigarette demand is reportedly affecting the domestic tobacco industry. SF1010
Thailand: Thai leaf output is forecast to increase by 10 percent in 2001 as a result of improved burley yields. Burley tobacco production is expected to total 27,000 tons in 2001, up 35 percent from 2000. However, leaf consumption is down by nearly 5 percent due to flat domestic cigarette sales. TH1047
Turkey: Oriental production in 2001 is forecast to drop by 25 percent and total 150,000 metric tons. The Government of Turkey is limiting production in order to comply with the IMF and World Bank agreement to keep production and stocks at manageable levels. Oriental exports are forecast down by 11 percent to 90,000 tons because of decreaseed cigarette consumption in the western world. TU1021
U.S. DEVELOPMENTS
USDA Announces Final Tobacco Referenda Results: On April 25th, USDA announced the final results of referendum held in March among Pennsylvania growers of cigar filler (type 41), Connecticut and Massachusetts growers of cigar binder (type 51 and 52), and growers of Maryland type tobacco (type 32) to determine whether quotas and price support will be in effect for marketing years 2001, 2002, and 2003. Virginia growers of sun-cured (type 37) voted in favor of quotas. Final results are identical to preliminary results announced on April 9th. PR1523
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