This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding.
The report was prepared by the Tobacco, Cotton and Seeds Division, FAS, AGBOX 1051, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1000. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-9516, or by FAX (202) 690-1171. The next issue of the tobacco circular will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on December 30, 1996.
Brazil's unmanufactured tobacco exports for 1997 are forecast to reach nearly 273,000 metric tons, an increase of over 9 percent from 1996. Flue-Cured exports, which account for nearly 80 percent of Brazil's total leaf exports, are expected to rise almost 10 percent to 215,000 tons. Brazil's burley exports in 1997 are expected to reach nearly 47,000 tons, an increase of 9 percent from 1996. Much of the expected increase in the foreign demand for Brazil's leaf tobacco in 1997 can be attributed to a Brazilian tobacco industry campaign designed to improve leaf quality, along with expectations that Brazil's leaf prices in 1997 will remain near levels set in 1996. Brazil's leading unmanufactured tobacco export markets are the European Union, the United States, and Japan.
Through the 35th sale day of the 1996/97 Canadian flue-cured tobacco marketing season, the Ontario Flue-Cured Tobacco Growers Marketing Board reports that 23,021 metric tons of flue-cured tobacco have been sold. This represents a 15 percent increase in sales compared to the same 35 day period of last year's marketing season. Prices in Canadian currency so far this year averaged $3.75 (US$2.73) per kilogram, up nearly 4 percent from last year, with sales of "A" graded leaves accounting for 68 percent of purchases, down from 74 percent last year.
Through the 24th and final week of sales, the Malawi Tobacco Control Commission reported 15,017 metric tons of flue-cured tobacco were sold at the Malawi auction. This reflects a 33 percent decrease from last year's sales of 22,547 metric tons. Flue-cured prices averaged US$2.30 per kilogram this year, up 71 percent compared to last year. Burley sales this year totaled 115,452 metric tons, 32 percent more than last year. Prices for Burley were US$1.61 per kilogram, up nearly 46 percent over the last year.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced on December 16, 1996 the provisions of the 1997 flue-cured tobacco program. The national marketing quota for the 1997 crop is 973.8 million pounds, up 100.2 million pounds from the 1996 quota of 873.6 million pounds. The 1997 marketing quota is based on domestic cigarette manufacturer's purchase intentions of 535.5 million pounds (up nearly 13 percent from last year), average unmanufactured tobacco exports for the period 1994-1996 of 343.3 million pounds (down less than 1 percent from the 1993-1995 period), a reserve stock adjustment of 125.1 million pounds, and the Secretary of Agriculture's discretionary downward adjustment of 30.1 million pounds.
The support level for the 1997 flue-cured crop is $1.621 per pound, up 2.0 cents from 1996. The marketing assessment will be 0.8105 cents per pound, on both growers and buyers, for a total of 1.621 cents per pound for the 1997 flue-cured crop. Importers of flue-cured tobacco will be responsible for the full 1.621 cents per pound assessment on tobacco imported. The no-net-cost assessment will be announced at a later date.
Through the 15th sale day of the 1996/97 U.S. burley and dark tobacco auction season, total gross sales of U.S. burley tobacco (type 31) reached 191,669 metric tons, up 24 percent from last year when 154,978 tons were sold during the same 15 day period. Prices for type 31 are averaging $4.24 per kilogram so far this year, up 17 cents per kilogram from last year. So far this year no type 31 tobacco has gone under loan. Sales of Virginia sun-cured (type 37), greenriver (type 36), and one sucker (type 35), are reported up as well this year, while Virginia fire-cured (type 21) is reporting slightly lower sales. Prices are averaging higher in all markets so far this year when compared to last year, while loan take is lower. Western district fire-cured (type 23), and eastern district fire-cured (type 22) markets are scheduled to open at a later date
U.S. TRADE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY-OCTOBER 1996
U.S. unmanufactured tobacco exports for January-October 1996 totaled 176,221 metric tons, valued at $1.11 billion. This represents a 6 percent increase in quantity and a 1 percent increase in value when compared to the first ten months of 1995. The leading U.S. leaf export markets during the January-October 1996 period were: Japan, 27,703 tons; Germany, 23,078 tons; the Netherlands, 16,374 tons; Turkey, 13,860 tons; the United Kingdom, 13,555 tons; and Belgium/Luxembourg, 13,307 tons.
Flue-cured exports in January-October 1996 reached 85,921 tons, valued at $601.9 million. This is down 8 percent in quantity and down 9 percent in value from the same period in 1995. The leading U.S. flue-cured export markets in January-October were: Japan, 16,750 tons; Germany, 11,934 tons; the United Kingdom, 8,586 tons; Turkey, 8,324 tons; South Korea, 5,732 tons; and Belgium/Luxembourg, 5,441 tons
Burley exports for January-October 1996 totaled 42,808 tons, valued at $323.7 million. This is up 6 percent in quantity and up 4 percent in value from January-October 1995. The leading U.S. burley export markets for the first ten months in 1996 were: Germany, 9,384 tons; the Netherlands, 7,242 tons; Thailand, 4,144 tons; Italy, 2,962 tons; and Belgium/Luxembourg, 2,636 tons.
U.S. cigarette exports for January-October 1996 totaled 205.15 billion pieces, valued at $3.99 billion. This is up 8 percent in quantity and up 1 percent in value from January-October 1995. The leading U.S. cigarette export markets so far in 1996 are: Japan, 57.18 billion pieces; Belgium/Luxembourg, 53.09 billion pieces (much of which is re-exported); the Russian Federation, 14.88 billion pieces; Lebanon, 9.57 billion pieces; Saudi Arabia 7.86 billion pieces; and Cyprus, 6.98 billion pieces.
U.S. exports of bulk smoking tobacco in January-October 1996 totaled 39,578 tons, valued at $313.2 million, representing a 14 percent increase in quantity and a 17 percent increase in value from the same period in 1995. The leading export markets so far in 1996 are: Turkey, 7,414 tons; Spain, 6,829 tons; Belgium/Luxembourg, 6,827 tons; and the Netherlands, 2,745 tons.
U.S. unmanufactured tobacco imports for consumption (duty paid) in January-October 1996 totaled 265,094 tons, valued at $814.7 million. This is up nearly 75 percent in quantity and up 84 percent in value when compared to January-October 1995. Imports of oriental tobacco, the leading tobacco type imported by the United States, reached 77,461 tons, valued at $324.3 million during the first ten months of 1996. This is nearly 12 percent higher in quantity and 26 percent higher in value compared to January-October 1995. Flue-cured imports for the first ten months of 1996 totaled 54,146 tons, valued at $218.3 million, up more than two-fold in quantity and value from January-October 1995. Burley imports so far in 1996 reached 49,938 tons, valued at $183.4 million, up more than three-fold in quantity and up more than four-fold in value from the same period in 1995. U.S. imports of stems and scrap tobacco so far in 1996 totaled 56,764 tons, valued at $23.5 million, up more than three-fold in quantity and up more than two-fold in value from January-October 1995. The leading suppliers of unmanufactured tobacco imports for consumption so far in 1996 are: Brazil, 75,408 tons; Turkey, 64,000 tons; Argentina, 20,776 tons; Malawi, 15,251 tons; Thailand, 14,638 tons; Greece, 12,026 tons; and Zimbabwe, 7,387 tons.
U.S. general imports (actual arrivals) of unmanufactured tobacco for the first ten months of 1996 totaled 284,035 tons, valued at $903.3 million. When compared to January-October 1995, general imports so far this year are up more than 87 percent in quantity and up more than twice the value.
U.S. TOBACCO TRADE, 1995-1996 OCTOBER JAN-OCT JAN-DEC. 1995 1996 1995 1996 1995 1996 EXPORTS: UNMANUFACTURED TOBACCO MT 21,580 22,988 165,826 176,221 209,482 215,000 $,000 141,592 155,850 1,107,343 1,114,443 1,399,863 1,355,575 $/MT 6,561 6,780 6,678 6,324 6,682 6,305 BULK SMOKING TOBACCO MT 3,092 4,980 34,739 39,578 41,618 48,000 $,000 23,966 37,402 268,437 313,153 325,567 376,800 $/MT 7,751 7,510 7,727 7,912 7,823 7,850 CIGARETTES Mill P 20,785 23,198 190,008 205,147 231,100 245,000 $,000 427,147 459,761 3,940,236 3,993,168 4,769,944 4,772,000 IMPORTS: LEAF IMPORTS FOR CONSUMPTION MT 20,165 65,411 151,520 265,094 190,291 300,000 $,000 57,204 209,617 442,672 814,717 550,136 900,000 $/MT 2,837 3,205 2,922 3,073 2,891 3,000 LEAF GENERAL IMPORTS MT 16,983 34,282 151,829 284,035 199,088 330,000 $,000 46,203 96,613 417,576 903,317 554,658 1,031,250 $/MT 2,721 2,818 2,750 3,180 2,786 3,125 LEAF IMPORTS FROM CBI: METRIC TONS CON. 532 1,848 4,907 10,658 7,225 12,500 GEN. 399 1,291 4,740 10,215 6,739 12,500 1/ Forecast 2/ Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) countries include: Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, British Virgin Islands, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador,Grenada, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherland Antilles, St. Christopher-Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, Grenadines, Trinidad & Tobago, Panama, and Guyana. NOTE: DUE TO DATA AGGREGATION, ROUNDING ERRORS MAY OCCUR. SOURCE: COMPILED FROM BUREAU OF THE CENSUS RECORDS. PREPARED BY USDA/FAS/TCSD DECEMBER 1996 TARIFF-RATE-QUOTA UPDATE U.S. Tobacco Imports Subject to Tariff-Rate-Quota 1/ September 13, 1996 Through December 15, 1996 Metric Tons Quota 1996/97 Imports Percent of Recipients Quota to Date TRQ Used Argentina 12,000 3,728 31.1% Brazil 80,200 10,369 12.9% Chile 2,750 618 22.5% European Union 10,000 92 0.9% Guatemala 8,875 1,155 13.0% Malawi 12,000 5,162 43.0% Philippines 3,000 0 0.0% Thailand 7,000 336 4.8% Zimbabwe 12,000 1,555 13.0% Residual 2/ 3,000 3,000 100.0% Total 150,825 26,015 17.2%
1/ U.S. Tariff Schedule line items subject to the TRQ include flue-cured and light air-cured tobacco, including burley, which are used in the manufacturing of cigarettes for consumption in the United States.
2/ A TRQ of 3,000 metric tons is available to all countries, other than the 9 designated quota recipient countries, and is allocated on a first come/first served basis.
NOTE: The TRQ is administered on a Sep. 13 - Sep. 12 year.
SOURCE: U.S. Customs Service.