June 18, 2001

RUSSIA: GOOD CONDITIONS FOR 2001/02 GRAINS

Analysts from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service traveled to Moscow June 6-10 to examine 2001/02 harvest prospects. Interviews with agricultural officials and independent observers indicated that current USDA estimates of grain production provide an accurate assessment of harvest prospects at this time. Russian grain production for 2001/02 is forecast to increase by 2.0 million tons from last year to 67.6 million following an increase in sown area and generally favorable weather. Wheat output is forecast at 37.0 million tons, against 34.5 million last year. Establishment and over-wintering conditions for winter grains were good, and spring weather has been generally favorable for both winter and spring grains. The spring sowing campaign is complete, and farms reportedly met the spring grain target of 34.5 million hectares. (See trip report and current grain-production estimates.)

Total Russian grain area for 2001/02 is forecast at 47.6 million hectares, up 2.1 million from last year. The increase was noteworthy -- total grain area has been declining since the mid-1970's, driven chiefly by a slide in spring wheat and spring barley area, and Russia has not seen a year-to-year jump of this size in nearly 30 years. The increase in 2001/02 area was split evenly between winter and spring grains.

The quality of 2001/02 winter wheat is likely to decrease slightly from last year. The winter was mild, resulting in relatively low winterkill losses, but the absence of an extended hard freeze could have a negative impact on grain quality in the form of increased insect infestation. Furthermore, some observers indicate that supplies of plant-protection chemical are down slightly from last year. Fertilizer application, however, has increased slightly. Rates are still only a fraction of the levels applied ten years ago, during the "intensive technology" period of the late 1980's, but fertilizers are being applied more efficiently and with less waste. Progress in fertilizer and chemical application will be gradual.

Although yield potential is high, final Russian grain output will depend on harvest weather. Even in a relatively good year, 3 million hectares of grain can remain unharvested due to inclement weather, usually in Siberia. Yield losses are compounded by a chronic shortage of operational harvest machinery. Experts estimated machinery-related losses at roughly 15 million tons for 2000/01, and the situation is unlikely to improve this year.

For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0888.