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June 27, 2000
RUSSIAN SPRING SOWING CAMPAIGN FALLS SHORT OF TARGET
The Ministry of Agriculture has announced that total 2000/01 spring-grain area on State farms (which produce over 90 percent of the total grain crop) reached 33.0 million hectares, 2.0 million hectares less than the amount sown last year and roughly 5 percent short of the target of 34.5 million hectares. This year's sowing progress was plagued by weather-related delays in the Urals and Siberia, both important spring-wheat regions. The shortfall in spring-grain sowing, however, will be partially offset by a million-hectare increase in the projected harvested area of winter grains, which typically yield 60-80 percent higher than spring grains.
The USDA currently estimates Russian total grain production at 61.4 million tons (including roughly 1.5 million tons of pulses and miscellaneous grains) against 54.8 million last year. Although this is at least several million tons lower than the Ministry of Agriculture's mid-June forecast of 65-69 million, several factors support a less optimistic outlook:
As indicated above, the lower-than-expected results of the spring sowing campaign will likely result in a million-hectare drop from last year in total harvested grain area;
The spring planting delays will effectively shorten the growing season for spring wheat and barley, reducing yield potential and increasing the risk of crop damage in the event of early frost prior to harvest;
While conditions in the winter-grain region have been generally good this year, the USDA total-grain estimate already reflects an increase in winter-grain production over last year's relatively good crop.
Harvest of winter barley has just begun in southern Russia, and winter-wheat harvest will be underway by early July. Establishment conditions for grains in the spring-wheat region are favorable; the wet weather that delayed planting provided beneficial topsoil moisture for crop emergence.
For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0888.
