June 26, 2000

PROSPECTS DIM FOR WINTER WHEAT IN UKRAINE AND MOLDOVA

The dryness that prevailed throughout Moldova and southern Ukraine during April and May (see June 9 update) has continued through most of June, essentially eliminating the chance of recovery for the 2000/01 winter wheat crop in these regions. Precipitation has been persistently low since April in Moldova, and in the prime wheat-growing regions of southern and eastern Ukraine. In north-central and western Ukraine -- areas of less intensive winter-wheat production -- the weather has been generally favorable. Vegetative indices derived from NOAA/AVHRR satellite imagery during the first half of June indicate that crop conditions in Ukraine are worse than for the same period last year, when Ukrainian winter-wheat yield fell to the lowest level in twenty-five years. (The location of Moldova has been indicated on the NDVI map; Ukraine lies directly to the east and north.) The Moldovan wheat crop also has been scorched: according to a U.S. agricultural attache report, production is forecast to fall to 500,000 tons from 875,000 tons last year. Emergence and establishment of the corn and sunflowerseed crops in Ukraine and Moldova likely has been affected also; in Ukraine, corn and sunflowers are grown predominantly in the south and east, the areas which have been hardest hit by the dryness.

For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0888.