September 27, 2000

KAZAKSTAN WHEAT HARVEST IN FINAL STAGE, YIELD DOWN SHARPLY

The USDA estimates Kazakstan 2000/01 grain production at 10.5 million tons, including 8.0 million of wheat, down from last year's bumper crop of 14.2 million tons of total grain and 11.2 million of wheat. Official harvest data cited by the Reuters news agency indicate that as of September 25 grain harvest had reached 11.2 million tons (bunker weight, prior to cleaning and drying) and was roughly 90 percent complete. Yield was reported at 1.0 ton per hectare, and yield has been dropping steadily since harvest began in late August. At approximately the same date last year, harvest stood at 9.3 million tons -- roughly 75 percent complete -- with yield reported at 1.2 tons per hectare and climbing.

Yield was slightly higher than last year during the early stages of the harvest (see graph), but as the campaign moved into north-central Kazakstan, the country's prime spring-wheat region, yield failed to keep pace with the near-record level achieved last year. Despite officials' optimistic August projections of another 14-million-ton harvest, the 2000/01 grain crop never appeared likely to match last year's output (see August 16 assessment).

For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0888.