|
|
|
|
|
|
August 15, 2000
USDA FORECAST OF RUSSIAN GRAIN HARVEST UNCHANGED AT 62 MILLION TONS
The USDA forecasts 2000/01 Russian total-grain production at roughly 62 million tons, including 34 million tons of wheat, unchanged from last month's estimate. As of August 10, Russia's public-sector farms had harvested 25.3 million tons of grain from 11.3 million hectares, according to an agricultural official cited by the Reuters news agency. The amount of grain threshed is roughly one million tons higher than by the same date last year, and the reported yield of 2.29 tons per hectares is up 20 percent. Quality is reportedly higher than last year. The pace of harvest, however, is lagging behind both last year, when nearly 13 million hectares had been harvested by the same date, and the average of the past ten years (roughly 30 percent complete this year against an average of 40 percent). Wet weather in parts of European Russia is aggravating the already-slow progress.
The spring sowing campaign also was marked by delays, attributed to rainy weather and fuel shortages, which could have two potential negative impacts on production prospects:
Farms failed to reach the spring-grain planting target of 34.5 million hectares. Spring-grain area (including corn for grain) stands at approximately 33.4 million hectares, down 2.0 million from last year;
The spring planting delays will effectively shorten the growing season for spring wheat and barley, reducing yield potential and increasing the risk of crop damage in the event of early frost prior to harvest.
According to reports from the U.S. agricultural attache in Moscow, the continuing shortage of harvesting equipment will limit grain output. Officials have indicated that the agricultural sector would be incapable of gathering more than 65 million tons of grain this year, regardless of the size of the potential harvest, given the severe machinery shortage. The attache notes, however, that the situation has improved from last year, especially in the North Caucasus and Volga Valley, two key production regions.
For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0888.
