August 10, 2000

CENTRAL ASIA GRAINS ESCAPE SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT DAMAGE

Central Asia, which includes Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, is known chiefly as the cotton-production zone of the former Soviet Union, but the region is forecast also to produce roughly 8 million tons of grain this year. Grain output has jumped 60 percent over the past five years, chiefly because of higher yields resulting from increased irrigation. In Uzbekistan, for example, the percentage of irrigated grain area rose from roughly 40 percent in 1990 to nearly 80 percent in 2000. (Cotton has always been virtually all irrigated throughout the region.) Central Asia's irrigation supplies rely largely on snow-melt from the nearby Tien Shan mountains. Winter precipitation in the mountains, however, has been below normal for four of the past five years, and moisture reserves are reportedly low as a result of the long-term dryness. Dryness continued throughout the spring and summer, and cumulative precipitation remains substantially below normal. Local observers are reporting that cotton has been under drought stress in parts of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, but the grain crop appears to have escaped significant damage. Roughly 80 percent of Central Asia' grain crop consists of winter wheat, which reaches maturity several months before the cotton crop and likely avoided some of the drought's impact. According to official reports, the Turkmenistan grain harvest surpassed the 1.5-million-ton target by 0.2 million tons, and 2000/01 Uzbekistan output will likely match or exceed last year's output of 4.3 million tons. Grain production in Kyrgyzstan, which has not reported significant water shortages, is forecast to match last year's 1.6 million tons.

The drought is reported to be most severe in the northern and western oblasts of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which are farther downstream, where irrigation supplies become more depleted. The USDA estimates Uzbekistan cotton production for 2000/01 at 4.9 million bales, down from 5.3 million last year. A reported 25-35 percent of total Uzbekistan cotton area could be subject to reduced irrigation supplies. In Turkmenistan, the drought is reportedly most severe in the northern cotton-production region, and estimated output is down nearly 20 percent from last year, from 1.2 to 1.0 million bales. Meanwhile, press reports from Kazakstan (which borders Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to the north) claim that irrigation water has been diverted by the other Central Asian countries before it reaches Kazakstan. As a result, according to the reports, Kazakstan cotton producers are facing a severe water shortage. The Kazakstan wheat crop (estimated at 8.0 million tons) is not threatened by the drought; the prime grain area lies in the north-central part of the country, which has been receiving adequate rainfall. Kazakstan 2000/01 cotton production is estimated at 0.3 million bales.

Reports from Tajikistan are mixed. While some officials indicate that drought impact has been minimal, the Minister of Agriculture indicated in an interview with Interfax new agency that wheat and cotton production could fall sharply this year because of the drought. The estimates of crop damage, however, are somewhat misleading, as production targets typically are highly optimistic. Wheat production, for example, will fall 100,000 tons short of the 700,000-ton target, according to the official, and seed-cotton production is forecast to reach only 350,000 tons, against the target of 500,000 tons. The USDA estimates 2000/01 wheat production at 300,000 tons, and lint-cotton production at 0.4 million bales (roughly 300,000 tons of seed-cotton).

(View AVHRR composite image of Central Asia. Vegetation appears as red. The Tien Shan mountains are located in the eastern part of the image, in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Note the white clouds. The irrigated crop areas, surrounded by desert, are clearly distinguishable.)

For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0888.