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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
April 11, 2005
The above USDA area and production estimates are slightly higher than the second corn production estimate released by South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) on March 23rd for the 2004/05 season. CEC estimated total corn production of 11.4 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from their last month's estimate. Corn area was estimated by CEC at 3.34 million hectares, with the commercial sector at 2.93 million hectares and the developing sector at 413,400 hectares.
Corn in South Africa is typically planted from early October through the end of December, and crop development, flowering, and grain filling stages occur from January to March. Harvesting begins around mid-April and continues through the end of June. The crop stage has reached grain-filling stages and harvesting will begin soon.
High yields are estimated this season due to excellent rainfall and favorable climate conditions during most of the growing season. Some regions in the northwest planted a few weeks late due to late arrival of spring rains, but above-average rainfall during January benefited crop development and assisted the late-planted crop to recover in these regions. Preliminary rainfall data provided by the South African Weather Service, show above-average rainfall in January and near-average rainfall during February and March.
This year's bumper harvest may also exceed the national storage capacity estimated at 11-million tons. During a recent crop tour to South Africa by FAS analysts, several silo managers mentioned that South Africa's storage capacity is not equally distributed across the main corn region and production from some areas are expected to exceed local storage capacity. These silo managers are already looking for innovative ways to store grain in more distant locations while at the same time trying to keep transport costs to a minimum.
Corn area has decreased in South Africa by nearly 1-million
hectares during the past 10-years after South Africa's agricultural
sector was
converted to a free market economy in the mid-1990s. Many former
agricultural fields are now fallow as
farmers go out-of-business from a more competitive market and low
international prices. Farms that have gone out-of-business tend to
be those farms with consistent low yields due to poor soils or low seasonal rainfall with high variability. Low
yields from these farms make it difficult to recover input costs and make a
profit each year. For
example, this year corn prices have reached an all time low of 560
Rands/ton ($93/ton) due to high stocks
and a bumper harvest anticipated this season. Several industry sources mentioned that corn production
input costs are approximately 2500-3000 Rands/hectares, which means a farmer
requires a corn yield of approximately 5-6 tons/ha to recover input costs this
year when
corn prices are at 560 Rands/ton. In other words, farmers with average
corn yields of 2.5-3.0 tons/ha require corn prices at 1000 Rands/ton
($167/ton) or more in order to recover their input
costs this season.
2005 Crop
Tour Summary
2005 Crop Tour Pictures
South
Africa Releases Final 2003/04 Estimates (October 13, 2004)
South Africa GAIN Report (April 2005)
South
Africa GAIN Report (March 2005)
South
Africa GAIN Report (February 2005)
Crop
Explorer for Southern Africa
Corn
Production by Province
Average
Yields by District
South
Africa Landcover
Record Corn Irrigation in South Africa (May 27, 2003)
Preliminary Crop Area Estimates by
South Africa's CEC
South
African Weather Service
