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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
January 19, 2005
Summary
During the last quarter of 2004 and into 2005 winter grains in Morocco,
Algeria, and Tunisia emerged and developed with beneficial soil moisture.
Precipitation has been widespread and well-timed throughout the agricultural
areas. The best crop conditions in Northwest Africa appear to be in the
important grain-producing area of central Morocco. Satellite derived
vegetation indices, weather data, and ground reports all indicate a very good
crop in the making. Further east, the large grain-producing area
along the Tunisia-Eastern Algeria border also appears to be growing an
above-average crop. Meanwhile, rainfall deficits have increased in
southern Morocco and western Algeria after a dry December reduced moisture
reserves. The dryness is becoming a concern, but it is not yet critical. The crops
are now in a low-growth, vegetative state which requires little moisture during
the winter months. Interestingly, a period of unusually cold weather with temperatures
dropping as low as -5° C occurred in many agricultural areas of Algeria
as well as on the agricultural plateaus of eastern Morocco, around Fes and
Quarzazate. These low temperatures may have caused some vegetation burn-back,
but likely resulted in little or no damage to crops.
Cumulative Precipitation: Morocco
Algeria Tunisia
Background
The vast majority of grain (almost exclusively winter wheat and barley) in the
three-nation block is rainfed. There are some significant, but
primitive well/gravity irrigation systems in Morocco, but their performance is
linked to collected rainfall. Normal precipitation is less than 20 inches per
year, so there rarely can be too much rainfall, hence more is almost always
better. A
frenzy of planting activities typically occurs only after the return of seasonal
rains in the fall. Experienced Maghreb farmers will not
risk sowing crops into dry soil. With the Sahara Desert lying just beyond the Atlas
Mountains to the south, drought can quickly return. If crops are sown without enough
early-season soil moisture, they can die during emergence . Similarly, if crops are
planted too late, they can die before becoming fully developed as the spring rainy season
ends.
Satellite image showing Northwest Africa's extent of vegetation
The
2005/06 Season
In the fall of 2004 rain arrived first
to Tunisia and eastern Algeria in September, allowing their farmers to begin field preparations
during October, while growers in Morocco had to wait until November or December
to start planting. Fortuitously for the farmers, a mild climate in Morocco allows planting to
last into January. Tunisia
and eastern Algeria have experienced the most precipitation in Northwest Africa during the new 2005/06
season, with totals being well above-average during both critical months of
November and December. Meanwhile,
Morocco's cumulative precipitation has been a bit lower, but it still was near-normal for both months.
Northwest Africa Soil Moisture:
Percent
Soil Moisture Subsurface Soil Moisture
Surface Soil Moisture
Looking
Ahead
The most critical element for germination and emergence of winter
wheat in Northwest Africa is rainfall, and so far it has been sufficient in all
areas during the young 2005/06 season. As
of now, the regional crop looks to be doing very well, however things can and do
change quickly in North Africa. Due to the
semi-arid climate, soil
moisture will remain the most important variable for the future success of the
2005/06 crop. The timing and
quantity of rainfall will be crucial in the coming months. A small amount of
winter precipitation will be necessary for the crop to subsist during the mild
winter, but most importantly, another period of substantial rainfall is needed during February, March, and April. This
spring time frame includes the moisture-demanding reproductive period. However,
at this time, yield potential for each nation continues to
remain high and the prospect of an unusual, third-straight bumper harvest is a
real possibility - if adequate and well-timed rains continue. Of course, normal
weather at harvest must also coincide for this realization to materialize.
Yearly
Northwest African Grain Production Tables
Official USDA area and production estimates for grains and other
agricultural commodities are available at PSD
Online. Initial estimates for 2005/06 will be released on May 12,
2005. Additional weather monitoring of Northwest Africa and other world
agricultural regions can be found at PECAD's Crop Explorer website
located at: http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/
