December 17, 2003

Iran: Bumper Crops Followed by Positive Start to New Season

Summary

Iran’s current winter grain season—to be harvested in May-July 2004—began with ample rainfall promoting winter grain planting and proper establishment.  This positive start to the season comes on the heels of bumper grain crops from the previous season, MY 2003/04.  In  2003/04,  output was the second consecutive year of record output,  following multiple years of drought-reduced crops.  Favorable weather and intensified government support have elevated production and reduced the need for imports.

Background  

The Iranian government has made development of the agricultural sector is a national priority.  Iran's current national development plan calls for increased financial investment and support to promote maximum growth in the agriculture.  Government support is directed toward  increasing domestic crop production for food security, and reducing dependency of imports. 

Wheat is a dietary staple.  Wheat production has been targeted for increase to a self-sufficient level.  Good weather, higher area, and increased government support through higher guaranteed prices and subsidized seeds and inputs have effectively contributed to rising wheat production and falling imports of recent years.

Area planted to field crops is also gradually rising.  Water availability, however, rather than land, is the major constraint to agricultural land development.  FAO estimates Iran’s cultivable land at 51 million hectares or approximately 31 percent of the country’s total area, although less than 15 million hectares are actually cultivated.  Development of water resources is critically important for the agricultural sector.  The government is pursuing, as national priorities, the improved management and modernization of water resources and systems to increase irrigation and water use efficiency.

Iran has produced an average of 14 million tons of grains, including wheat, barley, corn, and rice in the last 5 years.    The principal crops of wheat and rice account for 71 and 11 percent, respectively, of  total grain output.  The recent 5-year average production for wheat and rice are 10 and 1.6 million tons.   

A regional drought that affected Iran from 1999 to 2001 cut grain output drastically.  Prior to the drought, average production was approximately 16 million tons. Drought cut wheat production to a low of 8 million tons and elevated wheat imports to an all-time high of 7.4 million tons in 1999/2000.  It now appears that the temporary setback in production has ended.  In 2002, wheat production recovered to pre-drought levels due to favorable weather.  Repeated good weather in 2003 resulted in similar high production.  Wheat imports for this (MY 2003/04) are estimated at a low of 1.0 million tons.  Rice production saw a similar rise in production due to good weather the past 2 years.

2003/04 Wheat and Rice Production

Wheat

Iran’s 2003/04 wheat production is estimated at 12.4 million tons, equal to last year’s record crop.  Wheat area is estimated at 6.3 million hectares, up 2 percent from last year.  Both bumper crops were largely the result of improved precipitation.  Approximately 30 percent of Iran’s wheat is rainfed.  Rainfed growing areas are concentrated in the northwest third of the country.  Rainfall during the 2002/03 growing season was sufficient and timely in most areas.  Lorestan and Khuzestan, where rainfed wheat is about 12 percent of total wheat production, received below-normal rainfall for the season.  Reduced yields in these provinces were offset by higher yields in Khorasan, where rainfed and irrigated wheat accounts for 20 percent of the total wheat.  Satellite data showed better vegetation condition in Khorasan compared to last year.  Khorasan is one of three key provinces (Fars and Khuzestan are the others) that produce more than 60 percent of Iran’s wheat. 

Rice

2003/04 rice production is estimated at a record 2.2 million tons (3.3 million, rough basis), 6 percent above last year.  Rice area is estimated at 0.63 million hectares, 5 percent above last year.  More than eighty percent of rice is grown in the Caspian Sea coastal provinces of Gilan and Mazandaran.  Rice production has also benefited from increased government support and improved weather.  Last year’s rice production jumped up nearly 60 percent from drought-levels and was 12 percent higher than the previous record.

Planting of Winter Grains (MY 2004/05)

Winter wheat and barley were sown in October and November.  Planted area is expected to be similar to slightly above last year’s estimated 6.3 million hectares.  The season started with dry weather benefiting planting, followed by wetter and warmer than normal weather that aided early plant growth.  Precipitation in key growing areas has been higher than last year.  Rainfed growing areas in the northwest have received abundant precipitation for establishment of winter grains with the exception of Azarbayejan and Arabil.  The precipitation is also helping to recharge reservoirs and groundwater reserves which are gradually recovering from the drought but have already benefited from two good rainy seasons since the drought.

Outlook

The outlook appears positive for Iran's wheat producers who have two good seasons behind them, favorable weather thus far in this season, plus continued intensification of government support.  Favorable weather for the remainder of the season, especially sufficient moisture during the critical grain reproductive stage in the Spring will be key to the outcome of the current wheat crop.  The crop will be harvested from May to July.

References:

FAO, Food Outlook November 2003.
Statistical Center of Iran, Iran Statistical Yearbook 1380
Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Annual Review 1380 (2001/02)
Third Socioeconomic and Cultural Development Plan of the Islamic Republic of Iran, 2000-2004

Links:

For additional FAS/PECAD background information on crop production in Iran:

Iran's Wheat Crop Needs More Rain

Drought and Flood Plague Iran's Rice Crop

For crop conditions in Iran and throughout the world, visit Crop Explorer

For current and historical official USDA data on world production, supply and distribution of agricultural commodities, visit PS&D Online

For more information, contact Maria Anulacion of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division at 202-690-0139 or maria.anulacion@usda.gov