China: Wheat Update

Winter wheat accounts for about 90 percent of China’s total wheat area, and nearly 95 percent of  total production.   It is grown primarily on the North China Plain, but it is also an important crop in Sichuan and Shaanxi provinces [Chart].  On the North China Plain, winter wheat is usually grown as a double crop in rotation with cotton, corn, or oilseeds; in central China (south of the Huai River) winter wheat is commonly rotated with single-crop rice.  Winter wheat is planted from mid-September through October and harvested from late May through June.  Most of the crop, perhaps 70 to 80 percent, is fully irrigated or receives supplemental irrigation at some point.  Spring wheat is grown north of the Yellow River and west of the North China Plain, particularly in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia and Gansu provinces.  It is planted in April and harvested in July/August.  Spring wheat is rarely irrigated; yields are more than 30 percent below winter wheat yields.  .. 

China’s 2004/05 winter wheat planting season was delayed by 1 to 2 weeks due to unusually wet autumn weather that slowed the 2003/04 summer crop harvest and hindered planting preparations.  The excessive rainfall  caused widespread lodging and water-logging as well as locally serious flooding along the Yellow River and its tributaries.  More than 200,000 hectares of cropland were reportedly inundated in Shaanxi’s Wei River valley, a major winter wheat-producing region, and several thousand hectares of cropland were flooded in Henan and Shandong provinces in September and October.  (see "Excessive Rainfall and Flooding Damaged Crops, Delayed Fieldwork", USDA/FAS/PECAD)

Favorably dry and warm weather in late October facilitated planting and aided  germination.   Soil moisture levels were abundant to excessive for wheat development across northern China, unlike the drought conditions of the last two years.  Satellite imagery and vegetation indices show that emergence and tillering was better than last year due to high soil moisture levels and mild temperatures in October.

Rain, snow, and much colder temperatures spread across northern China in the first week of November, ending nearly three weeks of clear and mild weather.  Light to moderate snow (up to 7 inches) covered parts of Shanxi, Hebei and Shandong, offering some protection against freezing temperatures and further boosting soil moisture levels for the vegetative crop.  Freezing temperatures were reported as far south as the Yangtze River, but the cold spell was short and crop damage was probably minimal.  Winter wheat in northern growing areas has started the hardening process and will soon go dormant, while wheat in southern areas should enter dormancy by mid- to late-December.

Planted Area for 2004/05 May Drop Again

Wheat area and production in China has been on a downward trend since 1997/98, when it hit a record 123.3 million tons from 30.1 million hectares.  There were many reasons for this decline, including:

• Four years of bumper crops (1996/97 through 1999/00) created huge surplus stocks that depressed market prices.
• The government, burdened by high storage costs, ended the procurement program for spring wheat and poor-quality wheat from southern production areas. 
• Conservation programs enacted over the past decade converted marginal cropland (including wheat) into forests and grasslands.
• Arable land (including wheat) was abandoned due to groundwater and surface water shortages, particularly in the lower Yellow River basin.
• Government policies encouraged the expansion of high-quality grains and cash crops, which often happened at the expense of wheat. 

Given China's poor wheat crop in 2003/04, shrinking global stocks, and rising domestic wheat prices (currently about 10 percent higher than last year), there was speculation that farmers would plant more wheat for 2004/05.  However, a recent survey by the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) indicated that winter wheat area dropped by 3.8 percent this year, while another planting survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed winter wheat area down by 1.6 percent.  One reason for farmers' reluctance to plant winter wheat may be that prices for other crops have also risen sharply in recent months and may offer higher profits.  For example,  winter wheat competes directly with rapeseed in the Yangtze River valley and the southern part of the North China Plain.  The current demand for rapeseed oil is very strong and prices are up about 15 percent since January 2003.  According to the NBS survey, rapeseed area increased by 5.5 percent this year, and other sources report that rapeseed area increased by 10 percent in Hubei and 15 - 20 percent in Anhui and Jiangsu provinces.  It's likely that much of this new rapeseed area was previously planted to winter wheat.

Links 

 "Chinese Wheat Exports Surge, but Future Uncertain"  (USDA/Grain and Feed Division, November 2003).

China Country Page (USDA/FAS/PECAD)

Crop Explorer (USDA/FAS/PECAD)

For more information, contact Paulette Sandene
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division,
Center for Remote Sensing Analysis at (202) 202-690-0133.