|
|
Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
|
|
Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
September 15, 2003
Russian grain production for 2003/04 is estimated at 62.5 million tons (compared to 84.3 million in 2002/03), including 34.0 (50.6) million wheat and 15.5 (18.7) million barley. According to Ministry of Agriculture reports, harvest was over 60 percent complete as of September 8, with output cited at roughly 50 million tons and yield at 1.9 tons per hectare, against 69.5 million tons and 2.3 tons per hectare by the same date last year.
The 2003 harvest campaign got off to an unusually poor start due chiefly to wet weather in southern Russia. Winter wheat prospects were hampered by lower sown area, higher than usual winterkill, and persistent spring dryness. (See Russia trip report.) The unfavorable conditions are reflected in the wheat harvest data reported by the Ministry of Agriculture: by the end of August, when winter wheat harvest is typically complete and spring wheat harvest is just getting underway, Russian farms had gathered only about 15 million tons of wheat against nearly 33 million last year.
Harvest has accelerated remarkably, however, since the arrival of drier weather in European Russia in mid-August. The harvest campaign is underway in the Ural and Siberian districts and will likely continue well into October. Spring wheat production potential is relatively high despite late planting. Russia could enjoy its third consecutive bumper harvest of spring wheat if -- as in the past two years -- favorable fall weather enables farmers to complete harvest before rain and snow bring harvest activities to a halt.
Russian agricultural officials forecast total grain production for 2003/04 at 70 million tons and maintain that the goal will be met if favorable weather continues until late September. Other leading Russian forecasters have lowered their forecasts in recent weeks. SovEcon, an independent commodity analysis institute, estimates total grain output at 65 to 66 million tons, and wheat at 33-36 million. IKAR, an institute for agrarian market studies, estimates total production at 62 to 68 million and wheat at 34 to 35 million. (Note that the total grain estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture and other Russian forecasters include roughly 2.5 million tons of pulses and miscellaneous grains which are not included in the official USDA total of 62.5 million.)
Ukraine's harvest of "early grains," which include wheat, barley, rye, oats, and pulses, is virtually complete, with output reported at 14.2 million tons (bunker weight, prior to cleaning and drying) compared to roughly 36 million last year. The USDA estimates 2003/04 wheat production at 5.0 million tons (against 20.6 million last year) and barley at 8.0 (10.4) million. This year's Ukrainian wheat harvest was an unqualified disaster, marked by late planting, devastating winterkill, and spring drought that reduced yield potential of spring barley also. (See Ukraine trip report.) The good news is that conditions have been very good for the "summer" crops, corn, and sunflowers. Planted area for both crops increased this year, due in part to unusually high spring replanting following the destruction of the winter grains. Corn area is estimated at 2.0 million hectares, the highest level in fifteen years, and production at 5.5 million tons, against 4.2 million last year. Sunflower area is estimated at a record 3.6 million hectares, up over 30 percent from last year, and sunflowerseed production is forecast at record 4.3 million tons against 3.3 million last year.
The USDA estimates 2003/04 Kazakstan grain production at 14.2 million, including 11.5 million tons of wheat. Both figures are unchanged from last month and down 9 percent from last year's bumper crop. Grain harvest is now underway in the key north-central region, where roughly three-fourths of the country's grain is produced. As of September 9, farmers had gathered nearly 8 million tons of grain from roughly half of the sown area, and agricultural officials indicate that Kazakstan is on a pace to harvest 14 million tons of grain, against 15.9 million last year.
