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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
September 12, 2003
Relief from the two-year drought seemed to arrive last fall on the Canadian prairie, when abundant rainfall replenished depleted soil moisture. Additional precipitation, in the form of winter snowfall, created favorable conditions for spring planting. Cold temperatures and wetness delayed field work in May, but most parts of the prairie were in good condition by mid-June. In general, the weather during July and August was windy, hot, and dry, which caused crop conditions to steadily deteriorate. Scattered showers sustained some fields, but soil moisture reserves were depleted after two years of drought, and many fields did not achieve their potential this year. Aided by the dry weather in August, the pace of the cereal and rapeseed (canola) harvest has been very rapid.
According to an August 22 report by Statistics Canada, grain and oilseed yields are forecast to be below average for the third consecutive year. Some people within the agriculture industry have speculated that the Statistics Canada report was out-of-date when it was published because it was based on a survey taken at the end of July. The generally dry weather pattern in western Canada persisted throughout the first part of August, while some crops were still maturing. Statistics Canada will publish two more production reports this year, in October and December, and revisions to the 2002 and 2003 forecasts are likely.
FAS/Washington forecasts wheat production to be 21.0 million tons in 2003, up 34 percent from 15.7 million last year. Harvested area is forecast to be 10.45 million hectares, compared to 8.6 million in 2002. Winter wheat plantings in eastern Canada expanded by 60 percent compared to recent years, to over 400,000 hectares. Coupled with eastern Canada winter wheat yields of nearly 5 tons per hectare, the area increase buoyed the 2003 total wheat crop by an additional 0.8 million tons over a typical year. Western Canada durum wheat production is forecast to be 3.8 million tons, very similar to last year. An increase in harvested area is being offset by reduced yield.
Barley production is forecast to be 12.0 million tons this year, up 65 percent from 7.3 million in 2002. Harvested area is forecast to be 4.6 million hectares, compared to 3.3 million last year. It is estimated that 91 percent of the planted area will be harvested for grain, compared to 64 percent last year.
Oat production is forecast to be 4.0 million tons this year, up 46 percent from 2.75 million last year. Harvested area is forecast to be 1.8 million hectares, compared to 1.3 million in 2002. The 2003 growing season saw the largest harvested oat area since 1978. There were 5 percent more oats seeded in 2002 than this year. Last year about half of the area was abandoned or chopped for livestock feed because of the extreme drought. Typically around 25 percent of oats are used for livestock feed ("green chop"), but only 20 percent were chopped this year, possibly because of decreased demand by the troubled livestock industry.
Canola production is forecast to be 6.2 million tons in 2003, up 73 percent from 3.58 million last year. Harvested area is forecast to be 4.70 million hectares, compared to 2.86 million last year. There was a 22 percent increase in planted canola area after three consecutive years of harvested area reductions.
Despite the lack of rainfall in July, many parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan are in better condition than last year, while Manitoba is generally worse. The "difference image" below was created using satellite imagery from a NOAA-AVHRR satellite. The global area coverage (GAC) composite shows the difference between August 1-10, 2002, and the same period in 2003. Many different types of agricultural land contribute to the overall vegetation condition "signature," including arable crops, grassland (pasture), and fallow ground. On the image below, all landcover types except "cropland" have been masked using the PFRA Generalized Landcover classification.
For information about where crops are grown in Canada, see the PECAD Canada country page.
Canada: Crop Condition Update, 7/14/03
Canada: Prairie Drought Slashes Production, 9/13/02
Canada, Oilseeds and Products Annual 2003,
CA3030, 5/15/03
Canada, Grain and Feed Annual 2003,
CA3021, 4/10/03
For timely crop conditions in Canada and throughout the world, visit Crop Explorer
For current and historical official USDA data on production, supply and distribution of agricultural commodities for Canada and much of the world, visit PS&D Online
