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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
July 11, 2003
Hopes for steady rainfall from the 2003 monsoon have dissipated into concern that Mexico may be experiencing a fourth consecutive summer of sub-par precipitation. Reservoir levels were already a concern, and continuing dry weather means they are not being recharged. This will make it difficult to offset the shortcoming of the monsoon by irrigating some grain fields, due to ever-dwindling water resources. Further south, Central American vegetative development is below normal in many places due to inconsistent rainfall.
Map showing the Central Plateau and Gulf Coast States of Mexico |
In the past 3 years, rainfall during the last 2 months of the summer season has recharged Mexican soil moisture reserves; a similar scenario will be needed for the balance of this summer to avoid crop degradation. The annual monsoon traverses Mexico in a southeast to northwest pattern, usually beginning in May, and retreats from northwest to southeast, ending in October. The monsoon is usually longest and most consistent across the southern half of Mexico. It continues north, complementing the expanded hours of daylight, and permitting producers to take full advantage of the fertile soils of the Central Plateau. The arrival of annual monsoon rainfall in May begins to improve rainfall accumulation. However, Mexico's 2000-2002 soil moisture levels lagged behind normal for May and June, before rain events later in the summer eventually boosted accumulation. 2003 has followed a similar pattern in that rainfall frequency and intensity have been below normal.
 Map showing Irrigated Corn in Mexico, by state. |
Corn in Mexico is traditionally a spring/summer dry land crop. Irrigated area can increase marginally in states where reservoir water is available; however, the cost/benefit ratio is typically not attractive to Central Plateau corn producers. Recent dryness has resulted in more fields being revamped for irrigation, but economic realities make this a short-lived solution. There are a limited number of fields that are good candidates for rapid conversion to irrigation, a limited number of producers with sufficient financial resources to make the conversion, and a limited amount of water sources to draw upon. From 1997 to 2001, an average of 676,000 hectares of irrigated corn was harvested in the summer, compared to a national average of 6,774,000 hectares (irrigated plus non-irrigated hectares harvested). Much of the irrigated area is in the states Mexico, Guanajuato, and Michoacan, home to 245,000 irrigated hectares during the five year period.
Government of Mexico officials indicate that many reservoirs used for irrigation are below their historical levels (percent of capacity), some have percents of capacity in the single digits. Guanajuato state has two dams (Solis and Texputepec) which are among the more fortunate reservoirs in Mexico in terms of having enough water to service fields thus far this summer. Across the southern border Guanajuato shares with Michoacan, the slow death of Lake Cuitzeo continues.
Central America
Poor soil moisture April 1- May 15, 2003 inhibited seed germination in Central America, but overall conditions improved with more plentiful rainfall as May turned into June (see regional soil moisture maps in Crop Explorer). Rainfall distribution continues to be not as widespread as desirable, with some parts of Central America receiving half of the norm. Crop vigor is therefore sub par across much of the region. A more bountiful monsoon over the next 2-3 weeks would largely offset the negative effects experienced by grain crops to this point in the summer.
Previous Updates
Mexico Crop
Travel: November 4, 2002
Mexico:
Important South Mexico Cornfields Going Dry:
July 31, 2002
Visit Crop Explorer to see more weather and crop information.
