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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
July 14, 2003
Wheat production is forecast to be 25.0 million tons in 2003, up 1.0 million from last month, and up 59 percent from 15.7 million tons in 2002. Wheat area is estimated to be 10.4 million hectares, based on the June planted area estimate published by Statistics Canada, and assuming between 1 and 2 percent abandonment (compared to 19 percent last year). Barley production is forecast to be 14.0 million tons this year, up 0.5 million from last month, and up 92 percent from 7.3 million tons last year. Barley area is estimated to be 4.7 million hectares, assuming 92 percent is harvested for grain (compared to 64 percent last year). Wheat and barley yields are forecast to improve from last month based on generally good conditions across much of the prairie.
The first rapeseed (canola) production forecast for 2003 is 6.4 million tons, from 4.7 million hectares, for a yield of 1.38 tons per hectare. Planted rapeseed area is forecast to expand by 21 percent over last year, with abandonment of 1 to 2 percent (compared to 27 percent last year). Rapeseed yield is forecast to be around average, but there are some areas of concern in the main rapeseed growing region of eastern Saskatchewan.
Field crops on the Canadian prairie are generally in good condition as of the beginning of July, according to satellite imagery and weather information. In 2002, a severe drought slashed yields, and forced many grain and oilseed fields to be abandoned. Satellite imagery from three sensors (Landsat7, SPOT-VEG, and NOAA-AVHRR) shows that vegetation is in much better condition in 2003 than during the same time last year.
Landsat7 false-color images from spring of 2002 and 2003 reveal that fields in Alberta are in much better condition this year than they were in 2002.
SPOT-VEG composite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) shows that vegetation across the prairie was much more abundant mid-June this year than during the same period in 2002, and vegetation appears similar to 1999.
NOAA-AVHRR global area coverage (GAC) composite "difference image" from June 21-30, 2002 and the same period in 2003 shows that vegetation in a large portion of Alberta and Saskatchewan is substantially better this year than last.
For information about where crops are grown in Canada, see the PECAD Canada country page.
Canada: Prairie Drought Slashes Production, 9/13/02
Canada: Widespread Rainfall Arrives on the Prairie, 6/18/02
Canada: Dry Conditions Persist on the Canadian Prairie, 1/25/02
Canada, Oilseeds and Products Annual 2003,
CA3030, 5/15/03
Canada, Grain and Feed Annual 2003,
CA3021, 4/10/03
For timely crop conditions in Canada and throughout the world, visit Crop Explorer
For current and historical official USDA data on production, supply and distribution of agricultural commodities for Canada and much of the world, visit PS&D Online
