Australian Wheat Production to Rebound

Summary

Australian wheat production is forecast at a record 26 million tons, up 16.5 million or 174 percent from last year. Area is forecast at a record 13.5 million hectares. The record area combined with an average yield will result in record production.

Area

Forecast 2003/04 wheat area is 13.5 million hectares, up 2.5 million or 23 percent from last year. It is 0.5 million hectares greater than the previous record of 13.0 million estimated in 2000/01. This season’s area increase is expected to occur due to improved rainfall, strong economic incentive for growers to recoup losses from the 2002 drought, and the conversion of last season’s pasture into field crops. Drought’s impact on pasture combined with high feed grain prices led farmers to sell off large numbers of cattle and sheep. Sheep numbers are at a 53-year low (Meat and Livestock Australia, February 2003).

Yield

The 2003/04 wheat yield forecast is 1.93 tons per hectare. This is 1.06 tons per hectare or 123 percent above last year. This forecast is the same as the 5-year average yield prior to last season’s drought (seasons: 1997/98 to 2001/02) Soil moisture in many regions is adequate for planting. Parts of Victoria and South Australia are currently in need of rain, but they are the last areas in the Australia grain belt to be planted.

Factors Contributing to Potential Record Wheat Area in 2003

Farmers are keen to generate cash flow and to recoup economic losses incurred last season after nationwide crop failure.
The 2002 winter and summer drought severely affected pasture growth which, combined with high feed grain prices throughout the country, led farmers to sell off large numbers of cattle and sheep. Sheep numbers are currently estimated at a 53-year low (Meat and Livestock Australia, February 2003). The stock reductions of 2002 will lead to a conversion of pasture previously used for sheep into field crops.
A comparative analysis of seasonal starts from the previous five seasons (1998 through 2002) reveals that the 2003 season received normal to above-normal rainfall for the critical pre-sowing period of February 1 through April 30. The rainfall percentile data was examined only for the grain belt.
Regions that received above-normal rainfall are also some of the more productive wheat shires. February through April rainfall in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland fell exactly in those areas which are typically highly productive wheat shires.
The planting window for wheat in Victoria and South Australia extends into late June. Normal weather and average precipitation amounts for May and June will be adequate for timely sowing and germination.
Historically, wheat area significantly rebounds after a severe drought. On average, there was a 24 percent increase in wheat area. Further examination of previous droughts reveals that wheat area for the season immediately following the final year of a drought set a new record in 43 percent of the cases.

Conclusion

Though areas of South Australia and Victoria received light showers between the dates of May 11 to May 13, more is needed. The current situation of relatively good rainfall through April in many wheat areas, excess pasture land, the opportunity to recoup 2002 drought losses and the likelihood of receiving rainfall in the drier parts of the grain belt before late June point to a record wheat area.

For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division
at (202) 690-0135 or email james.crutchfield@usda.gov


Updated: March 30, 2005	Write us: Pecadinfo@fas.usda.gov	Index \| \| FAS Home \| USDA \|