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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
March 18, 2003
The Ukrainian Ministry of Statistics reports that farms planted 8.0 million hectares of winter grains for harvest in 2003 (compared to 8.7 million the previous season), including 6.7 (7.2) million wheat, 0.6 (0.8) million rye, and 0.7 (0.6) million barley. Several episodes of bitterly cold weather from November through January likely resulted in considerable damage to winter crops. Conditions were most severe, in terms of potential crop damage, in southern Ukraine, where about 40 percent of the country's winter wheat and almost all of the winter barley are grown. The continuing cold weather will likely delay both the resumption of vegetative growth of winter grains and the start of the spring sowing campaign. Initial USDA forecasts of 2003/04 production will be released on May 12, 2003.
Since January, ice crusting has presented a new threat for winter crops. Snow depth in Ukraine during February and early March has been the highest in several years, and because of below-normal temperatures the snow cover has not receded as quickly as in other years. During a brief "warm" spell in mid-January, maximum temperatures climbed above freezing and some thawing occurred. Since that time, however, daily highs in many areas have remained largely below freezing. The cycle of thawing and re-freezing has resulted in a ice crust which has persisted for several weeks, long enough to potentially smother winter crops. An industry source indicates that potential damage, while perhaps not as high as the 35- to 50-percent winterkill estimates variously reported, could exceed 20 percent.
The full extent of the impact of this winter's cold weather will be difficult to determine until winter crops resume vegetative growth. Satellite imagery indicates that snow still covers a large portion of the winter wheat production zones in Ukraine and Russia, in sharp contrast to last year when warm February weather kicked off an early spring: winter grains emerged from dormancy earlier than usual, and farmers were over half finished with spring sowing by the end of March. This year, winterkill and the the amount of required spring re-seeding will be higher than usual. To maintain total grain area at last year's level, farmers will be forced to plant significantly higher area of spring grains during a compressed time window.
In Russia, meanwhile, officials forecast a significant reduction in 2003/04 winter grain output due to the combination of an 18-percent drop in sown area and winter grain losses of roughly 20 percent. According to SovEcon, an independent Moscow-based agricultural research group, winter grain area fell by 10 to 15 percent in the three main production districts, and sown area throughout Russia totaled 14.0 million hectares, against 16.1 million for 2002/03. SovEcon estimates winterkill at approximately 2.0 million hectares compared to 1.5 million last season. According to the U.S. agriculture attaché in Moscow, seed stocks are adequate in most areas to enable farmers to compensate for these losses through spring re-seeding, assuming favorable weather and attractive prices.
USDA estimates 2002/03 Russian wheat production at 50.6 (compared to 46.9 million in 2001/02), the highest level since 1978/79, and barley at 18.7 (19.5) million. Ukraine wheat production is estimated at 20.6 (21.3) million tons, and barley production at 10.4 (10.2) million.
