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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
March 3, 2003
Winter wheat accounts for more than 90 percent of China’s total wheat output. China’s 2003/04 winter wheat crop was planted in September/October 2002 and will be harvested in June 2003. The 2003/04 spring wheat crop will be planted in late-March/early April and harvested in late-summer. (Map) In 2002/03, China produced an estimated 91.0 million tons of wheat from 23.5 million hectares harvested. Despite drought conditions last spring, the estimated yield of 3.87 tons per hectare came close to the 5-year average. USDA will make its first estimate of China's 2003/04 wheat area and production on May 12, 2003. Wheat Area | Wheat Yield | Wheat Production
Chinese government and industry sources report wheat area down again in 2003
According to preliminary estimates by government and industry sources, China’s 2003/04 winter wheat planted area dropped for the fifth consecutive year. Forecasts range from 1 to 5 percent below last year’s estimated area of around 21.5 million hectares. An estimated 2.0 million hectares of spring wheat were planted last year, and area is also expected to drop in 2003/04. There are several reasons for this trend. They include:
· The demand for wheat is soft, but supplies are abundant. Per capita consumption of wheat has fallen since the early 1990’s, while large stocks piled up following bumper crops in the late 1990’s. The Government has been selling off its wheat stocks and exporting feed wheat and milling-quality wheat overseas. China was a net exporter of wheat in 2002/03.
· Wheat prices are relatively low compared to competing crops. In its efforts to reform the wheat market, the Government has completely eliminated wheat procurement in several minor wheat-growing provinces. In the major wheat-growing provinces, government procurement prices are lower than the market price.
· Scarce water supplies in northern China have caused some wheat-growing land to be taken out of production. There are reports that some farmers in the Yellow River valley were unable to plant their 2003/04 winter wheat crops because rainfall and soil moisture were inadequate.
· In central China, winter rapeseed area has been increasing at the expense of winter wheat. Preliminary planting reports indicate that winter rapeseed area in 2003/04 may have increased by more than 300,000 hectares.
· While overall wheat area has been dropping, the percent of high-quality varieties has been increasing and may account for more than 25 percent of total planted area this year, compared to virtually nil five years ago. The focus of the Government’s grain policies has changed from “quantity” to “quality”.
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Planting conditions for the 2003/04 winter wheat crop were unfavorably warm and dry on the North China Plain, China’s main wheat-growing region. Periods of drought during September/November and a shortage of irrigation water caused planting delays and poor germination in several areas. (AVHRR satellite images - Shandong and Henan/Hebei). In contrast, precipitation was near to above normal in western and southern winter wheat areas and crops developed normally. The situation improved in December. Above-normal rain and snow provided beneficial moisture for the winter wheat crop as it entered dormancy. A blanket of snow covered most of the North China Plain at the end of the month and protected the crop from an outbreak of cold temperatures (down to -20 C) in late-December/early-January.
Precipitation in January / February 2003 was seasonably light (5 to 10 mm per month). It was enough to keep surface soil moisture high but not enough to erase the current 3 to 4 inch precipitation deficit in Shandong and Henan provinces. (Precipitation graphs) Temperatures have been warmer than normal since mid-January, although not as warm as last year, when China and all of eastern Asia experienced one of the mildest winters on record. (Temperature graphs) The snow cover has completely melted over China's wheat areas, but the coldest part of the season has passed and the threat of freeze damage is diminishing daily.
In the 2002/03 marketing year, unusually warm and dry weather from January through March caused crops to emerge from dormancy several weeks ahead of schedule and raised concerns about spring drought. A similar situation has developed this year. Temperatures in mid-February were several degrees above normal and warm enough to bring winter crops in southern areas out of dormancy 1 to 2 weeks early. Most of the winter crops in the Yellow River basin were still dormant in mid-February, but Chinese sources report that growth had resumed in parts of Shandong, Henan, and Hebei provinces by the end of the month..
The latest soil moisture data shows a sharp contrast between northern and southern China. In the Yellow River basin, soil moisture is below 20 percent and even lower than last year. Meanwhile, soil moisture in southern crop areas is nearly ideal, which bodes well for wheat development this spring. The greatest need for moisture is from mid-April through the first week of May, when the crop will be at the drought-sensitive heading/flowering stage. In the past, timely rainfall has been able to offset the impact of dry conditions earlier in the season.
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