February 12, 2003

Brazil:  Higher Yields Propel Soybean Crop Upwards

Record 2002/03 Production Prospects

Brazilian farmers are poised to reap their fourth record harvest in succession, as ample rainfall and high fertilizer usage propels potential crop yields higher.  USDA currently estimates 2002/03 soybean production at a record 51.0 million tons, up 2.0 million from last month and up 7.5 million or 17 percent from last year’s harvest. The rainfall pattern during the soybean crop’s vegetative and reproductive growth periods (Nov-Jan) has been nearly ideal in virtually all primary growing regions.  In addition, soil moisture levels have been adequate to excellent for the entire post-planting season throughout Brazil, enabling the crop to grow without significant periods of stress.  USDA is currently forecasting 2002/03 national soybean yield at a record 2.83 tons per hectare, up roughly 6.5 percent from last year, and 1 percent above the previous record level set in 2000/01.

Seasonal Review

The summer rainy season in Brazil was delayed in arriving this year, but began in earnest in late October.  The dry October weather impeded early planting operations in important growing areas of the Center-West, where farmers prefer to get their crops in as early as possible. By early November, soaking rains had reached virtually all the primary soybean growing regions, enabling widespread planting efforts to proceed. Though the crop was sown several weeks later than expected, the delay had no impact on the ability of Brazilian farmers to expand acreage.  The 2002/03 soybean crop was successfully sown by late December, and USDA estimates that soybean area increased by 1.65 million hectares or 10 percent from last year.  Acreage is estimated to have increased in every state as land was diverted from corn, rice, cotton, coffee, and pasture.  As observed in past years, substantial new land was also brought into production in the states of Mato Grosso, Goias, Bahia, Maranhao, Piaui and Tocantins.

Since planting operations began in October, beneficial soaking rains averaging 20-40 inches have blanketed the soybean region and created nearly perfect growing conditions. Rainfall totals have been near-to-above normal from November through January, providing ample support for robust vegetative development and stress-free reproductive growth. In general, the rainfall pattern has been more beneficial than last year, when drought and high temperatures depleted the soybean crop in the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Sao Paulo.  Currently, the bulk of the crop is in late stages of reproduction or pod-filling, and has adequate soil moisture to carry it to harvest. There have been no significant reports of crop stress, disease, or pest-related problems which would threaten overall production prospects.

Satellite imagery and weather data analysis confirm that nearly ideal moisture conditions from October-January have supported robust crop development in all major producing states.  Overall crop development is about 3 weeks behind last year, meaning harvest progress will lag last year’s pace. The delay in development will not, however, negatively influence crop yield or production prospects.  As the main harvest period approaches (Mid-February to end-March), record yield potential exists the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Parana, Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goias, Bahia, and Minas Gerias which represent 98 percent of total production. Excessive rains during February and March could impede harvest progress and downgrade quality, but rainfall would have to reach extreme levels to negatively impact current crop yield potential.

For more information, contact Michael J. Shean
of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS at (202) 720-7366.