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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
February 13, 2003
Recent hot weather in Argentina’s countryside has had minimal effect on crop production. Argentina suffered excessive temperatures during the last week of January 2003, with maximum temperatures reaching above 35◦C in western areas of the country and low soil moisture where it was excessively hot. Corn at or near silking would have been damaged, and soybeans at flowering would abort the flowers. The areas where both high temperatures and low soil moisture conditions occurred are in La Pampa and southwestern Buenos Aires Provinces, which account for about 9 percent of corn production and even less soybean production (2 percent). Crop conditions in the main growing areas of central Argentina, although hot, did not have the combination of low soil moisture and excessive heat. Current satellite imagery indicates above- normal vegetation conditions in central Argentina and below-normal conditions in southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa Provinces. In these areas, record or near-record corn yields are expected, and soybean conditions are good to excellent.
On February 11, USDA raised Argentina’s 2002/03 corn production to 14.5 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month, or 7 percent, and up 1 percent from last season’s output of 14.4 million tons. Harvested area is forecast at 2.45 million hectares, up 100,000 hectares from last month and unchanged from last season. Yield is forecast at 5.92 MT/Ha, the second highest yield on record.
Above-normal rainfall during vegetative and flowering stages of corn (November to December) improved yield potential, especially for the key corn-growing areas of central Argentina. However, high temperatures and below normal rainfall in January affected late developing corn in southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa Provinces (9 percent of production.) Early yield reports from central Argentina indicate very high yields. High yields for most of the corn (72 percent of production) should offset problems for the late developing corn (9 percent.)
Argentina’s corn harvest typically begins at the end of February and is 50 percent completion by early May. Harvest usually ends by July.
Argentina’s economic situation was chaotic after the default in December 2001. The changes in export taxes, banking problems, and the currency devaluation (over 70 percent) made decision-making for farmers difficult. However, since July 2002 the currency has stabilized and prices for grains have increased. Larger expected returns for corn encouraged farmers to plant more corn this season than previously believed, and, corn area matched last year’s levels. Reports of diminished fertilizer use have not been substantiated, and consumption is expected to be similar to last year's level. Bt corn varieties increased to 40 percent of total corn area, up from 36 percent last year, boosting yields and lowering pesticide use.
USDA forecasts Argentina’s 2002/03 soybean production at a record 33.5 million tons, unchanged from last month but up 12 percent from last season’s output of 30.0 million tons. Harvested area is forecast at a record 12.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 10 percent from last season. Yield is forecast slightly above average at 2.68 tons per hectare.
Soybean growing conditions are good to excellent in central Argentina. Above-normal rainfall during planting and vegetative stages November to December improved yield potential. However, high temperatures during late January and early February may have caused some aborted flowers. Soybeans can re-flower and “just-in-time” rains cooled down temperatures. In southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa Provinces, the combination of high temperatures and low soil moisture may cause yield declines, however, few soybeans are produced in this area (2 percent).
Argentina has two soybean crops: first-crop soybeans, which compete with other summer crops such as corn and sunflower, and second-crop soybeans, which follow wheat or barley directly in rotation. Planting for both crops is complete. The 2002/03 ratio of first- and second-crop soybeans is estimated at 82:18, the lowest amount of second-crop soybeans in the last eight years. Higher yields from first-crop soybeans more than compensate for increased planting in marginal soybean areas. First-crop soybean yields are typically higher than second-crop soybean yields.
The decline in wheat area, especially in central Argentina, has led to an increase of first-crop soybeans. Landsat-TM satellite imagery provides a field-level view of this change. A comparison of mid-January images from the 2001/02 season and the current season shows more area in 2002/03 that is planted to summer crops. Last year, this area was planted to the wheat/second-soy crop rotation (as can be seen in the January 22, 2002 image as a light blue response from the wheat stubble.) Wheat area has declined by 30 percent in southern Santa Fe, eastern Cordoba, and northern Buenos Aires Provinces and that area has been planted to first-crop soybeans.
Argentina’s soybean harvest typically begins at the end of March and is 50 percent complete by early May. Harvest normally ends by July.
