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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
January 3, 2003
Widespread, beneficial rain during autumn has greatly improved winter grain conditions for Northwest Africa. Winter wheat and barley comprises the vast majority of its grain crop and planting typically begins in mid-November, after initial rains moisten the dry soils. This year, Morocco’s first substantial rain arrived a full month earlier than normal, allowing farmers to begin preparatory fieldwork in October. The rain began in earnest during November and continued on into December. This should have provided for proper seed germination and a successful vegetative period for the young plants before winter dormancy. In an area that has been plagued by drought for several consecutive years, heavy November and December precipitation is a welcome relief.
Last season (2002/03) Morocco produced a large crop of 4.9 million tons of combined wheat (3.3 million) and barley (1.6 million), making its combined total 900,000 tons above its five-year average. Last year’s successful season was rooted in the arrival of late but plentiful rains in December 2001 and into early spring.
Morocco’s 2003/04 season is off to a favorable beginning. With planting having begun early, a long exposure to the limited rainy season will aid in the development. It is highly advantageous to have the significant November and December rains that occurred to maximize utility of a limited rainy season. Additionally, when autumn rain arrives early there is a tendency to plant more area. Farmer’s are likely increasing area because of the good weather.
The benefactor to this favorable scenario has been a prevailing weather pattern which has drawn storms in from the Atlantic. The storms have followed a more southerly track along North Africa’s Mediterranean coast, where they have spread soaking and frequent rains to Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia and southern Europe. November precipitation totals are above average in all agricultural locations. Morocco, central and eastern Algeria and western Tunisia have been in the storm’s bull’s eye, receiving up to 200 percent of normal precipitation. Morocco, the largest grain producer has seen the most rainfall of all three nations.
Surplus moisture during planting caused some delays and there was a loss in some localized area plantings because of the wet fields. The problem was worst in Kenitra, Morocco where heavy clay soils and flat topography prevented quick absorption of the excessive rainfall. Kenitra, along Morocco’s north Atlantic coast is a major producer of wheat, harvesting 14 percent of the country’s annual crop. FAS-Rabat reports that while planted area in this region will be down, increased area in other jurisdictions will compensate for Kenitra’s losses in area. Farmers in Northwest Africa do have the advantage of a very flexible planting calendar. A relatively wet and mild winter climate allows planting to be extended until the end of January.
The return of rain this fall is especially welcome in Tunisia where farms harvested record low wheat and barley crops in 2002/03. Severe drought stifled output to a dismal 430,000 tons of wheat and 70,000 tons of barley last season. This total is far below the five-year average of 1.2 million tons of wheat and 250,000 tons of barley.
