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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
October 20, 2003
South Africa's farmers are beginning to harvest 2002/03 winter crops and plant 2002/03 summer crops. Unseasonably heavy rainfall and mild temperatures in July and August favored winter crop development and boosted pre-planting soil moisture for summer crops. However, the situation took a turn for the worse in September as warm and abnormally dry weather dominated the region. Total rainfall for the month was well below normal in northern Free State, North West, and Western Cape, stressing winter crops in the filling stage. Summer crop planting in many parts of the Maize Triangle was delayed by insufficient rainfall and declining soil moisture.
Scattered showers in early October signaled the start of the rainy season, which finally arrived one to two weeks behind schedule. Hot and dry weather returned briefly in mid-October, renewing concerns about possible drought, but widespread rain and cooler temperatures at the end of the month improved crop conditions in most areas. However, percent rainfall for the month was still below normal and significant additional rainfall will be needed in November to erase soil moisture deficits and ensure adequate summer crop establishment.
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The South Africa Weather Bureau and other analysts report that a moderate-to-strong El Niņo is expected to affect the weather in southern Africa for the next several months. Past El Niņo events have been shown to decrease the likelihood of a favorable summer rainfall season over most of southern Africa. Preliminary weather forecasts for November 2002 through February 2003 call for below- normal rainfall and above- normal temperatures across the region.
The current USDA forecast for corn area in 2002/03 is 3.6 million hectares, up 250,000 hectares from last year. According to the first planting intentions survey conducted by South Africa's National Crop Estimates Committee, commercial corn area increased by 9 percent this year to an estimated 3.08 million hectares. White corn (used for human consumption) was up 19 percent to 2.05 million hectares, while the area planted to yellow corn (used for feed) decreased by 7 percent to 1.03 million hectares. Approximately 500,000 hectares is expected to be planted by non-commercial farmers in the developing agriculture sector. High demand for corn in the region and strong market prices encouraged farmers to increase area this year. Planting has already begun in eastern crop areas (Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal) and will start soon in western Free State and North West. Planting is normally complete by mid-December but can extend until mid-January in western areas if poor weather (drought or excessive rainfall) causes planting delays.
USDA's current 2002/03 corn production estimate is 9.5 million tons, up 400,000 tons from last year and close to the 5-year average. Yields in South Africa have been relatively stable over the past 10 years at about 2.5 MT/Ha, with the exception of the El Niņo years of 1991/92 and 1994/95, when yields dropped by about 50 percent below normal.
Corn Area, Yield and Production Graphs
South Africa's 2002/03 wheat crop was planted in May/June and will be harvested in November/December. Planted area dropped slightly this year to 940,000 hectares, according to the latest planting survey by South Africa's National Crop Estimates Committee. The current USDA production estimate is 2.4 million tons, down 90,000 tons from last year due to lower area and slightly-lower yield. Production in 2002/03 will fall short of demand, and imports of about 500,000 tons will be needed in the coming year.
Growing conditions were favorably warm and wet for South Africa's winter wheat crop in July and August. Estimated yields were higher than normal in early September as the crop entered the heading stage, but yield prospects dropped as the weather turned increasingly hot and dry during the month, especially in Free State where more than 40 percent of the wheat crop is grown. Monthly rainfall was also lower normal in Western Cape, another important wheat-growing region. Scattered showers and cooler temperatures in late-October eased the stressful conditions and likely prevented any further yield reductions. The current USDA estimated yield of 2.55 tons per hectare is nearly equal to last year's record yield of 2.6 tons per hectare.
Wheat Area, Yield and Production Graphs
