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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
September 25, 2002
A relatively quiet 2002 hurricane season has intensified for Caribbean, Mexican, and the United States interests as tropical systems Isidore, Lili, and Kyle have placed many jurisdictions on high alert. Isidore is expected to threaten the Gulf Coast of the United States within the next 40-60 hours, having already pounded the Caribbean and Mexico with more than 30 inches of rain and winds in excess of 100 miles per hour. Lili, presently setting a slightly more northerly track through the Caribbean than did Isidore, will apparently cross the southwest portion of the island of Hispaniola during the next 2-3 days. Kyle is currently moving to the southwest of Bermuda, and like Lili, is expected to attain hurricane status within 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center always cautions the public to remain alert for revised forecasts, as tropical storms are notoriously erratic in their movements.
Storm Histories
Hurricane Isidore had moved west off the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico as of 4 p.m. Tuesday, September 24, and the National Hurricane Center forecast holds that she will turn north and approach coastal Louisiana about 48 hours later. The Caribbean Islands of Jamaica and Cuba suffered torrential rain and howling winds once Isidore rolled in from the southeast Caribbean Sea last Tuesday, September 18, as a tropical storm; but damage was light compared to the May/June 2002 floods, and no deaths have been reported as yet. Mexico was not as fortunate: by Monday morning, September 23, Isidore was a Category 3 (winds of 111-130 miles per hour) hurricane when she swept onto the Yucatan Peninsula of southeast Mexico. Isidore was downgraded to a tropical storm later Monday morning when her maximum sustained winds dropped below 70 miles per hour, however several persons are reported to have died in the storm.
Off the coast of northeast South America, tropical depression Thirteen evolved into tropical storm Lili, moving to the west at 20 miles per hour as of 5 p.m. Tuesday, with maximum sustained winds of 70 miles per hour. The current National Hurricane Center forecast places Lili just off the south coast of Haiti by Thursday, September 26. At least 4 deaths on smaller islands have already been attributed to Lili. Subtropical depression Twelve, far west of Bermuda, became Tropical storm Kyle, moving to the southwest at 6 miles per hour as of Tuesday morning, with maximum sustained winds of 65 miles per hour. While Kyle is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane (winds of 74-95 miles per hour) in about 48 hours, it is too soon for educated guesses about where Kyle will go beyond Thursday, September 26.
Wind and rain damage was significant in south coastal Jamaica following tropical storm Isidore, but not to the level of the flooding earlier this summer. The capital city on the southeast coast, Kingston, received hardly any precipitation from Isidore, while the parishes to the west were drenched. The western end of the island being just about at sea level, parts of Hanover and Westmoreland parishes had drainage issues with the heavy downpour, and likely will suffer the greatest agricultural losses.
Sugarcane production is important to this region. The harvest for this cycle was completed two months ago, and the disruption to the re-growth process should be quickly overcome once the water drains away. The best case for sugarcane is for the rain to stop for a few days so the soil can drain. Otherwise mature roots may be harmed and require replacement. The vegetable fields in the other parishes along the south coast are also waterlogged. These are worked mostly by individual operators with one hectare or less. These replanted fields were expected to supply vegetables for the market starting in September, helping to bring the flood-inflated prices back to a normal level prior to the holiday price hikes. Post-Kingston now believes that prices may remain high into the Christmas tourist season if there is a significant delay or loss of the supply of vegetables from the south coast parishes. As was the case with the early summer floods, this would result in losses on the small producers’ dinner tables as well as their balance sheets.
Hurricane Isidore was a Category 2 tropical storm when it brushed pass Cuba’s Isle of Youth, a few miles off the southwest coast of the main island. Gridded weather data for that time frame shows that at least 10 inches fell between September 18 and 23. Extensive damage is probable as October-December is prime harvest time for grapefruit and oranges on the island. The powerful winds and driving rain undoubtedly knocked maturing fruit from the trees to the ground, where it will soon rot in the saturated soil. The same is true for the orchards of Pinar del Rio, the westernmost state of the main island, whose orchards are not quite as bountiful as the Isle of Youth. The rice fields that had not yet been harvested in Pinar del Rio will also suffer from grains pummeled into the ground. Pinar del Rio is a relatively small sugarcane production province, but there will be some damage from wind and standing water. Harvest normally starts in December, which does not leave much time for the cane stands to recover.
The states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan are not major contributors to Mexico’s annual agricultural production. The absence of a natural water system (very few lakes and rivers), and an environment that ranges from near-desert to jungle, confines most agricultural cultivation to the coastal and highland areas. Livestock operations are present, but not large scale.
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