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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
October 20, 2003
Dry conditions throughout Australia’s grain growing regions have reduced production potential of the 2002/03 wheat crop. Production is forecast down due to continued dryness in Queensland (QLD), New South Wales (NSW), and Victoria (VIC), which has negatively affected both area and yield. Area is forecast lower this season, as a result of inadequate rainfall during both planting and crop establishment. Significant area reductions are anticipated in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Wheat area in South Australia (SA) is expected to be similar to last season, in response to relatively good conditions, a later planting window, and improved price expectations. Western Australia is considered to have had overall a more favorable season than the other states.
On average the wheat areas of Australia have received between 0 to 50 percent of normal precipitation for the period May 1 to September 16, 2002. Some locations experienced extreme shortfalls in precipitation. The last major drop in Australia wheat production occurred in 1994, also as a result of very dry conditions, particularly in the east. A comparison of percent of normal rainfall received during August 1994 to August 2002 shows a similar dry pattern through QLD, NSW, and parts of Victoria.
Drought conditions have affected the wheat belt of southern Queensland and central and northern New South Wales to such an extent that is visible from space. Low-resolution imagery from late August shows a dramatic reduction in vegetation index as measured by NDVI, ratio of red light absorption to infrared reflectance. Medium-resolution imagery corroborates both the weather data and other imagery data. Landsat TM satellite imagery reveals much more reduced planted area or delays occurring in 2002 as compared to 2001. Landsat data from NSW illustrates the difference between last year and this year in late August.
Wheat is Australia’s most important crop, with a seasonal gross value approaching three billion Australian dollars. Wheat is grown as a "winter" crop (autumn-winter-spring), often in rotation with pasture. Wheat production is concentrated on the mainland in a narrow crescent known as the "wheat belt." The eastern portion of the wheat belt stretches in a curve, inland from the Dividing Range, from central Queensland through New South Wales, Victoria, and southern South Australia. The western portion of the wheat belt continues around the south west area of Western Australia. Wheat planted area the past five seasons has averaged 11.9 million hectares, producing 22.6 million tons, with a national yield of 210 kg/ha. Australian wheat exports are a major competitor with US wheat exports.
