October 20, 2003

Australian Wheat Production Way Down Under

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Satellite Imagery - Vegetation Comparison 2002 and 2001

The wheat belt of southern Queensland, New South Wales, and parts of Victoria are most affected by the drought conditions.  In this early-season comparison, it is apparent that the 2002 season shows dramatically less vegetation in this normally productive agricultural area. Healthy vegetation is displayed as bright red tones.

Year-to-Year Vegetation Differences Apparent in August
Seasonal View of Vegetation Indices Multi-year Comparison
	Analyzing available NDVI (normalized vegetation indices) for Australia's wheat area shows the 2002 season is below average.  The previous year of low values occurred during the drought affected 1994 season.  Rainfall in late September and early October will be a key factor in determining whether final production will be simply below average or a record low.

Reference Map:

Analysis area is depicted in the map below.  Each gridcell in analysis area (red mesh squares) is overlaid on vegetated areas with in the most productive shires as reported by Australia Bureau of Statistics 1997 wheat production.

For more information, contact James Crutchfield  
of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, at (202) 690-0135.