|
|
Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
|
|
Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
August 13, 2002
The excessive July heat that has resulted in peat bog fires in north-central Russia has also likely had a negative impact on yield potential for corn in Russia and Ukraine. Maximum temperatures climbed above 35 degrees Celsius in southern and eastern Ukraine and southern Russia, the countries' key corn production regions, as the crop was tasseling and silking. It is during this reproductive stage that corn is especially vulnerable to heat stress. Ukraine corn production for 2002/03 is estimated at 3.0 million tons, against 3.6 million last year, and Russian output at 1.0 million, compared to 0.8 million last year when persistent drought sharply reduced yield.
USDA estimates Ukraine total grain production at 33.1 million tons (against 39.6 million last year), including 17.5 (21.3) million wheat and 9.0 (10.2) million barley. Because of unusually hot weather, the harvest campaign began about two weeks early this year. Harvest was roughly 90 percent complete as of August 5, with output reported at 32 million tons "bunker weight," which will translate to roughly 30.5 million after cleaning and drying. Yields have been higher than expected, considering early-season dryness in southern Ukraine and subsequent official reports describing significant crop loss. In Russia, grain harvest was nearly 30 percent complete as of August 5. Output is reportedly higher than last year in the Southern District, a key winter grain region, but harvest operations have now advanced northward into the Volga Valley, where persistent heat and dryness have likely reduced yield potential. Prospects are increasingly questionable in western Siberia, where excessive rainfall has hampered crop development. USDA estimates total Russian total grain production for 2002/03 at 73.9 million tons (85.0 million last year), including 41.0 (46.9) million wheat and 16.0 (19.5) million barley.
