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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
August 29, 2002
Soil moisture across the Caribbean Islands has improved since May, benefiting the region in contrasting ways. The Dominican Republic received regular rainfall almost daily in August, calming fears of damage to a much-anticipated rice crop. Jamaica has received very little precipitation since the May/June 2002 floods, allowing the soil to drain, while permitting individuals and businesses to rebuild. Cuba has serious soil moisture issues; however, the general dryness enhance the taste of citrus products. The most active months of the hurricane season are ahead; to this point, the 2002 hurricane season (June to November) has not delivered ample moisture to the Caribbean; neither has the mild El Niño.
The geography of the island is such that most Dominican producers, no matter their size, have access to some sort of irrigation source; however there are areas suffering from declining wells and reservoirs due to consecutive years of sub par precipitation.
The graphs above depict precipitation during 2000 and 2001 (U.S. Air Force Gridded Data) in millimeters for two locations in Barahona and Duarte states of the Dominican Republic (D.R.). Each graph shows months when little or no rain fell in production areas for rice, cassava, sweet potatoes, and other vegetables, which are a part of the daily Dominican diet. Comparing this data with the long-term normal illustrates that total rainfall in these locations has been significantly below normal since January 2000.
The graph above shows below-normal rainfall conditions that have affected the entire country since May 1, 2002, and the pattern of heavy rainfall followed by dry periods. The showers that began in late July have persisted, easing the moisture pressure on sugarcane fields, and quieting calls from the cattle industry for government assistance for their range-fed animals. Moistening the soil surfaces has enabled small producers to continue with short-cycle subsistence crops such as cassava, garlic, and other vegetables. Unless the showers continue, dryness will soon become a problem again.
The harvest of the major rice crop is over, and it appears that the D.R. will achieve its goal of rice self-sufficiency in 2002, thanks to national government payments via the government-owned agriculture bank that issues loans to offset overall rice production expenses. (Click here to see Production, Supply, and Demand Table from Post-Santo Domingo GAINS report DR2007.) Costs of financing agricultural activities is high because there is limited money in the stressed economy, and the agricultural bank is able to establish its own rates. At about 20 percent, the rates on agriculture loans are slightly lower than the normal commercial rates of 22-30 percent.
Limited space is one reason why harvested rice storage fees are also high. When D.R. production was lower, rice importation levels were higher, and rice mills had sufficient space to house the island’s output. Now that D.R. production has re-ascended to match consumption, millers must store the rice until it is needed during the year, but they have no additional housing to meet the increased space demand. There is the additional cost of moving rice in and out of storage, so rice can accumulate substantial expenses between the time it is harvested and when it is taken by the wholesaler.
People typically buy rice in half-pound to 10-pound bags for 7-8 pesos per pound. Using an exchange rate of 18.5 pesos per U.S. dollar, that equates to about $3.78, placing the D.R. in the high price range of even U.S. grocery stores. See Post-Santo Domingo report DR2007 for additional rice data.
The 2.5 million inhabitants of Jamaica continue to mend from the impact of the May/June 2002 floods.
The graphs above depict cumulative precipitation during May 1-August 20, 2002 (U.S. Air Force Gridded Data) in millimeters for four locations in Jamaica. These show how rainfall since the May/June floods has been virtually nonexistent. When the rainfall declined in 2001, total accumulation at these locations still registered above-normal into September. This year, rainfall in these locations registered below normal-before August.
There are reports of houses still underwater in Manchester Parish. Elsewhere, while homes were flooded, many suffered no major structural damage. Once the water receded, homeowners were sometimes able to clean-up and re-occupy their property fairly quickly. International aid played a major role in getting nearly all displaced citizens out of temporary shelters by early August, however large problems remain. For example, the condition of public highways is always a contentious subject in Jamaica, and the floods exacerbated the problem in rural areas without bringing viable solutions to the fore. Damaged and otherwise dangerous highways hamper the ability of small producers to get their fresh goods to marketplaces, limiting their return on investment, and ultimately constricting the country’s recovery across broad economic groups. The cost of goods commonly sold in the marketplaces of large cities remains high because the re-planted crops will likely not reach market until September. Click here to see an update from Post-Kingston on current prices in Jamaica.
The 2001/02 dry season (November-April) was abnormally dry, setting up a scenario where, at minimum, normal rainfall to begin the 2002 rainy season (May-October) was needed to support field crop development in Cuba.
Rainfall was a few weeks late in starting this May, and has lagged behind slightly since. Temperatures have been normal to above-normal, accentuating the periodic dryness.
The graphs above display U.S. Air Force Gridded Soil Moisture data for the east and west ends of the island of Cuba. The red line represents May 1-August 20, 2002, soil moisture, measured in millimeters. Where the 2000 and 2001 rainy seasons (May-October) was unusually wet throughout, the expected July-August mini-break in the 2002 rainy season brought lower-than-normal precipitation. Temperatures have been normal to above-normal, accentuating the dryness. Regional production may suffer, however Cuba’s major national industries, sugarcane and citrus, should not be greatly affected by this level of dryness. Most of the citrus is irrigated, and current dryness can aid harvesting of grapefruit.
Visit Crop Explorer to see more weather and crop information.
