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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
July 25, 2002
Cumulative rainfall in the agricultural zones of Afghanistan remained below normal for the fourth consecutive year. However, the timing and distribution of spring rains appears to have benefited the winter grain crop. Although there is relative improvement this year in agricultural areas, as indicated by satellite imagery, the compounding effect of dry weather and higher temperatures continues to severely restrict food production. Wheat is the main food crop, accounting for more than three-quarters of food grain production. Current wheat production for 2001/02 is at a historical low. Production in 2002/03 will not meet total domestic need. Harvesting was completed by early July, with the higher elevations finishing last.
Analysis of the rainfall amount and distribution for the recent winter growing season reveals a significant shortfall compared to the long-term normal. This is the fourth consecutive year of below-normal precipitation. From season start in December 2001 through June 2002, key winter-crop growing regions of provinces to the west and north of the Hindu Kush (see "western analysis zone") received only 40 percent of normal rainfall, and the growing areas to the south and east of the Hindu Kush (see "eastern analysis zone") received approximately 43 percent of normal. Even though total precipitation was quite limited this season, the small amount which did fall was well timed. Timing of precipitation events is very important for the agricultural areas.
| western analysis zone (see map) | eastern analysis zone (see map) | |
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| Source: US Air Force Estimated Precipitation Data. PECAD Graph Product | ||
PECAD analysis of vegetation indices shows that vegetative health over the agricultural zone has improved compared to the previous season. The relative improvement is attributed to the timing of the rainfall which is estimated to have occurred during the reproductive-to-grainfill stage. A comparison between 2001-2002 and 2000-2001 winter grain seasons show significant improvement in the northern provinces of Badghis, Faryab, and Jowzjar. These northern provinces typically account for 20 percent of Afghanistan's total winter wheat production.
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Afghanistan Winter Grain Season: AVHRR Cumulative GAC Vegetation Index Analysis |
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The map, "Vegetation Index Percent Change 2002 as Percentage of 2001" is a quantitative comparison between the two seasons and reveals a 5 to 50 percent increase in vegetation health over large portions of the northern provinces of Badghis, Faryab, Jowzjar, and Balkh. The legend represents the range of year-to-year vegetation index changes over the entire country. The most significant increase in vegetation health and biomass is found in the north, which also corresponds to productive agricultural areas. Much of the remaining agricultural land showed no significant year-to-year change. The remaining areas identified as non-agricultural, a majority of the country, experienced an overall decrease in vegetation health, represented by tan and brown shadings. The sharpest decline occurred in the southwest provinces of Nimruz and Helmand. However, this area accounts for a only a small portion of Afghanistan's total winter grain production, is mostly arid with notable exception of the irrigated Helmand valley.
Favorable conditions were present over a major portion of the northern agricultural region on a year-to-year basis. This quantitative improvement in vegetation health in the northern agricultural zone will partially offset the previously anticipated decline in production resulting from sowing delays, limited inputs, and population displacement that occurred during the 2001-02 growing season. In conclusion, winter wheat production is expected to be similar to last season with the harvest completed by July 2002.
The low amount of rain received during the “rainy season” (October 2001-May 2002 ) has serious implications for summer crop areas and pasture lands, as low moisture reserves will not support a significant second (summer) crop as the dry season begins. We expect summer-crop production to again be severely constrained by water and input availability.
The UN reports that approximately 85 percent of the country's population is directly dependent on agriculture. Agriculture and animal husbandry have historically been the most important items of Afghanistan’s Gross National Product. According to the Cooperative Institute for Applied Meteorology at University of Missouri-Columbia, only about 12 percent of Afghanistan's total area is arable. Most of the land is semi-arid to arid, with very rugged terrain. The irrigated areas are known as "Abi" and the dry farmed areas are called "Lalmi."
Nearly
50 percent of the arable land is irrigated; three-quarters of it is located
north of the Hindu Kush Mountains. The
short growing season, at elevations above 2000 meters, permits only one crop to be
grown. Two crops a year can be
grown at lower elevations, if enough water is available. Canal
systems convey some 80-85 percent of the irrigation water. Traditional
karezes, springs, and wells feed the remaining 15-20 percent. According
to FAO’s Land Cover Atlas of Afghanistan and FAO AQUASTAT data, the estimated
annual
irrigated land totals some 2.5 million hectares. However, an estimated 30
percent of all irrigation systems are believed to have been damaged or destroyed
by war. Adding to the effects from abandonment, neglect, and lack of
maintenance, another 15 to 20 percent of the irrigation infrastructure is
probably unusable for agricultural purposes. Hence, the actual irrigated land
amounts to 1.2–1.3 million hectares, and is decreasing every year. The
decline in irrigation availability and efficiency has exacerbated the
already-failing crop production.
Wheat is the main food crop, accounting for more than three-quarters of food grain production. Other important food crops include rice, maize, and barley. The precise distribution of these crops is not very clear due to limited availability of census data. Generally the dry-farmed Lalmi areas are devoted predominantly to wheat and barley. Irrigated, or Abi, areas can also support crops such as rice and maize.
Similar in latitude and climate to India and Pakistan winter cropping areas, Afghanistan's winter crops such as wheat and barley are generally planted in October-December and harvested in April – July. The summer crops, such as rice and maize, are planted during April–May and harvested in August–September. The level of technological inputs, particularly fertilizer, is minimal. The level of inputs, financial investment capital, and irrigation infrastructure have been declining steadily over the last several years.
Wheat
provides the bulk of calorie intake in Afghanistan. Often bread and yogurt alone
constitute a full meal in rural areas. Paddy rice is usually sold by farmers and
not retained for family consumption. Maize
is used mainly as feed, while potatoes and various fruit crops are produced for
both domestic consumption and as cash crops.
Afghan dried fruits and nuts (mainly almonds and apricots) accounted for
60 percent of the world market in 1982, but declined to around 16 percent by
1990; the share is much lower now, but these products are still important
foreign exchange earners.
