June 4, 2002

Heavy Rains Soak Jamaica

The traditionally rainy month of May included a deluge approaching 8 inches over some areas of Jamaica, in the Caribbean Sea just south of Cuba.  Seven days of torrential downpour tapered off to showers by the morning of Tuesday, May 28, 2002, but at least seven fatalities, over 500 inhabitants in shelters, and untold damage was suffered on the island of over 2.5 million inhabitants.  

Preliminary estimates placed damage to agriculture at over U.S. $10 million, excluding the banana and sugar industries.  The center-south parishes of Jamaica, areas of significant  human population and agricultural activity, bore the brunt of the storm.  Most heavily affected were south coastal parishes Saint Catherine, Clarendon, Manchester, and Saint Elizabeth (see map of Jamaica parishes). East coast parishes Portland and St. Thomas, still recovering from the effects of the  November 2001 flood, also had damage.  Strong winds, flash floods, and mudslides, caused most of the original problems.  Public health officials are worried that disease will become epidemic in as many as 11 of the island’s 14 parishes, where medical facilities and power generators have been destroyed.  Fresh water, food, and shelter are also of concern (see map of  Jamaica's largest cities).

Thunderstorms Stalled Over Island

Jamaica is less than 12,000square kilometers in area, about the size of Connecticut.  Even so, the difference in annual precipitation from parish to parish can be surprisingly great.  While parishes to the east side of the island have a more traditional May-October rainy season, others seem to receive the most annual precipitation in May and again in October-December.   

Last week’s weather event escalated from nothing to something in rapid fashion.    A cluster of thunderstorms in the Caribbean, east of the coast of Mexico, moving from the west became part of a cold front, coming from  the northwest to form a tropical system.  As this system moved over Jamaica around May 21, it slowed down and began to interact over Blue Mountain, which stands over 2,200 meters above sea level. In addition to helping to knocking moisture from the clouds, Blue Mountain's sloped surface  funneled water downhill, toward the unprepared population area. 

Several days of heavy precipitation ensued before the tropical system gradually moved further eastward.  The Bahamas Islands received substantially less rainfall from the storm.  By, May 28, the system had become increasingly disorganized and moved east of the Bahamas Islands.  Additional rain in the Jamaica forecast will be supplied by another weather front.  A low pressure system southwest of Jamaica brought more rain through the week.  

Click on the names in the table below to view graphs of daily rainfall over four parishes from January 1st to May 27th of 2001 and 2002, based on U.S. Air Force weather data.

Slow Recovery Anticipated in Short Term

Commerce ground to a hall during the storm passage over Jamaica.  Some roads are still impassible, hampering recovery efforts.  The tourist industry--the main revenue source for the island economy, and backbone of  the services industry that provides over half the population with employment industry--likely will suffer from a temporary setback. Mining forms another key revenue source, and likely will be slowed because of flooding.

Agriculture is slow compared to the services industry, but  employs over 20 percent of the country's workforce.  Important crops include sugarcane, bananas, and coffee.  The banana industry is dominated by three companies, each one  based separately in the parishes of Saint Mary, Saint Thomas, and Clarendon.  All three are reported to have suffered damage to their operations.   

The poultry industry is almost completely controlled by  two companies, which have their own layer and grower houses, as well as contractual arrangements with small farmers. With more than 121,000 mature chickens believed lost in Clarendon parish alone, nationwide poultry damage is expected to reach into the millions of dollars.  Most of the lost birds drowned. 

Coffee was already harvested, so the damage was primarily to the coffee plants rather than berries lost. Saturated soil and plants will work against the sugarcane harvest; local processing plants were already out of cane and need more from the fields.  Vegetable producers in Clarendon, Manchester, and Saint Elizabeth are primarily individual operators working on one hectare or less.  Planting and harvesting are at random times year-round, and the losses will be witnessed on the small producers’ dinner tables as well as their balance sheets.  

The following information, provided by FAS-Kingston, reports statistics reported by the Jamaican Ministry of Agriculture.  This table reflects the percentage of contribution made by four parishes to the national total of several categories in 2001, and is intended to give indication of possible effect on 2002 production,  based upon last year's totals.

Crops         Parish Relative Contribution (%) To 2001 National Total

Source: Ministry of Agriculture (Data Bank & Evaluation Division)
* Estimates from poultry extension officers.

Additional Information

Trade:  Trade. Select "Jamaica" from pull-down menu.
Jamaican Production: see Post-Kingston, Jamaica Attaché Reports on sugar, hotels and restaurants, oilseeds

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For more information, contact  Ron White 
of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, at (202) 690-0137.