June 13, 2002

India and Pakistan:  Agriculture in Kashmir and Surrounding Regions

Summary

Increasing tensions in South Asia between neighboring Pakistan and India pose several economic and security threats to the region.  This report discusses agricultural production in the region that could be at risk in a conflict between these two nations.  India has record grain stocks which may help that nation deal with localized disruption of food supply caused by a border conflict.  In Pakistan, more agricultural production is at risk in a border conflict with India.

Kashmir Region

The Kashmir Region is comprised of area controlled by India, Pakistan, and China. The Indian area is administered as the state of Jammu and Kashmir; the Pakistani area is administered as Azad Kashmir.  The region's most important industry in terms of traditional employment is agriculture.  About 80 percent of the  people in the region are involved in agricultural activities. The major crops cultivated are rice, wheat, corn, tobacco, rapeseed, pulses, saffron, amaranth, and fruit.  Kashmir  represents only a small portion of total agricultural productivity for both India and Pakistan.

This past season, India produced a record wheat crop with the current level of conflict in the region.  Kashmir region produces only a very small percentage of each nation's total grain and food supply. For sugarcane, wheat, rice, pulses and oilseeds Jammu and Kashmir, and Azad Kashmir represent less than one percent total agricultural production and less than one percent of agricultural GDP.

Punjab Region

In nearby Kashmir, Punjab region's main crops are sugarcane, foodgrains, rice, pulses, and rapeseed. After partition, both India and Pakistan claimed a portion of the Punjab region.  Today, each has  adjoining states named Punjab.  If a conflict erupted, Punjab would be a likely route for troop movement, given the region’s more accessible transportation infrastructure and direct route to the capital cities of Islamabad and Delhi.  GIS analysis of the region reveals that in Pakistan, 15 percent of the total cotton production is from districts within 50 miles of the Indian border. In India, 19 percent of total cotton production comes from the districts within 50 miles of the Pakistan border. Approximately 27 percent of Pakistan's total rice production is within 50 miles of the Indian border. In India, only 5 percent of total rice production comes from the districts within 50 miles of the Pakistan border.  Pakistani wheat production these districts accounts for 26 percent of Pakistan's total production. In India, 14 percent of total wheat production comes from the districts within 50 miles of the Pakistan border.  The Punjab, as shown in the table below, represents a higher proportion of agricultural GDP for Pakistan; 21 percent of Pakistan's national production comes from Punjab. 

For more information, contact James Crutchfield  
of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, at (202) 690-0135.