June 4, 2002

Afghanistan:  Conditions Marginally Improved for Winter Grain Season

Summary 

While conditions in parts of Afghanistan have improved slightly compared to the previous two seasons, the country remains in drought for the fourth consecutive year.  The combined effect of dry weather and higher temperatures continues to affect food production.  Wheat is the main food crop, accounting for more than three-quarters of food grain production.  Current wheat production for 2001/02 is a historic low.  Any expected recovery in 2002/03 will likely not meet total domestic need.

Current Season Conditions

Analysis of the rainfall amount and distribution for the recent winter growing season reveals a significant shortfall compared to long-term normal.  This is the fourth consecutive year of below-normal precipitation.  Extended dryness will result in below-average winter grain production.  From the season start in December through May 20, 2002, key winter-crop growing regions received only 45 percent of normal rainfall.  A positive change this season has been the recent rainfall received during late April and May.  Even though total precipitation was quite limited this season, the small amount which did fall appears to have been well timed.   Timing of precipitation events is very important for the agricultural areas. PECAD analysis of vegetation indices shows that overall vegetative health over the agricultural zone has improved compared to the previous two seasons.

 

The low amount of rains received during the “rainy season” (October-May) has serious implications for summer crop areas and pasture lands, as low moisture reserves will not support a significant second (summer) crop as the dry season begins. The average temperatures were slightly cooler than last season but above the long-term normal, increasing the crop's water requirement. Irrigation water supplies depend largely on melting snows that feed the river systems and the irrigation infrastructure. This year's reduced rainfall was also accompanied by a mild and dry winter.

Background: Arable Land and Irrigation

The UN reports that approximately 85 percent of the country's population is directly dependent on agriculture.  Agriculture and animal husbandry have historically been the most important items of Afghanistan’s Gross National Product.  According to the Cooperative Institute for Applied Meteorology at University of Missouri-Columbia, only about 12 percent of Afghanistan's total area is arable.  Most of the land is semi-arid to arid,  with very rugged terrain.  The irrigated areas are known as "Abi" and the dry farmed areas are called "Lalmi."  

Nearly 50 percent of the arable land is irrigated; three-quarters of it is located north of the Hindu Kush Mountains.  The short growing season at elevations above 2000 meters permits only one crop to be grown.  Two crops a year can be grown at lower elevations, if enough water is available.  Canal systems convey some 80-85 percent of the irrigation water.  Traditional karezes, springs, and wells feed the remaining 15-20 percent.  According to FAO’s Land Cover Atlas of Afghanistan and FAO AQUASTAT data, the estimated annual irrigated land totals some 2.5 million hectares. However, an estimated 30 percent of all irrigation systems are believed to have been damaged or destroyed by the war.  Adding to the effects from abandonment, neglect, and lack of maintenance, another 15 to 20 percent of the irrigation infrastructure is probably unusable for agricultural purposes. Hence, the actual irrigated land amounts to 1.2–1.3 million hectares, and is decreasing every year.  The decline in irrigation availability and efficiency has exacerbated the already-failing crop production.

Wheat and Food Crops

Wheat is the main food crop, accounting for more than three-quarters of food grain production.  Other important food crops include rice, maize, and barley.  The precise distribution of these crops is not very clear due to limited availability of census data.  Generally the dry-farmed Lalmi areas are  devoted predominantly to wheat and barley.   Irrigated, or Abi, areas can also support crops such as rice and maize.  

Similar in latitude and climate to India and Pakistan winter areas, Afghanistan winter crops such as wheat and barley are generally planted in October-December and harvested in April – July.  The summer crops such as rice and maize are planted during April–May and harvested in August–September.  The level of technological inputs, particularly fertilizer, is minimal.  The level of inputs, financial investment capital, and irrigation infrastructure have been declining steadily over the last several years.  

Wheat provides the bulk of calorie intake in Afghanistan. Often bread and yogurt alone constitute a full meal in rural areas. Paddy rice is usually sold by farmers and not retained for family consumption.  Maize is used mainly as feed, while potatoes and various fruit crops are produced for both domestic consumption and as cash crops.   Afghan dried fruits and nuts (mainly almonds and apricots) accounted for 60 percent of the world market in 1982, but declined to around 16 percent by 1990; the share is much lower now, but these products are still important foreign exchange earners.   

 


For more information, contact James Crutchfield of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, at (202) 690-0135.