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May 17, 2002
Hopes for an early arrival of the 2002 monsoon in Central America have faded. Fear of forest fires continues to grow in Nicaragua. The Government of Nicaragua (GON) issued a "yellow alert" for the state of Nueva Segovia in mid-February 2002, in partial response to the rising threat of widespread forest fires across the northwest region of the country (Landsat Satellite image of northwest Nicaragua and neighboring Honduras).
Seasonal dryness, damage from pests, and other extenuating circumstances prompted GON to institute preventive measures to shield citizens (see Nicaragua's largest cities) and property from some of the impact should natural vegetation erupt in flames this spring and summer. Over 30 fires have scorched Nueva Segovia (see map of state) this year, all of them are presently contained. Within the last few weeks, 105 hectares burned near the town of Jalapa, close to the Honduran border. A half hour drive to the south, the town of Jicaro lost 1,550 hectares to fire, including 560 hectares of standing pine, 500 hectares of cut pine, and 490 hectares of hay.
Precipitation patterns in 2000 and 2001 largely conformed to the historical norm of seasonal dryness across Central America through the first four months of this year; however, weather has been abnormally dry for some localities. Problems do not usually arise in years where a typical rainy season (May-October) is followed by a below-normal dry season (November-April), as residual soil moisture will support plant life until the start of the next rainy season. However, 2001 crops received sub-par precipitation totals in many Central American regions, reducing soil moisture available during the following dry season. Maximum temperatures were not especially high, but even normal temperature and humidity levels are sufficiently high to encourage moisture depletion when soil moisture is already in short supply. Parched natural vegetation becomes natural tinder under these conditions.
The annual monsoon typically ends in October, after which rainfall virtually ceases for many parts of Central America until the following May. In years when precipitation amounts during the rainy season (May-October) fall significantly below normal, moisture can be lost from the soil surface fairly rapidly during the dry season. In the table below, graphs of cumulative precipitation and maximum temperature for five locations in the state of Nueva Segovia, Nicaragua, are presented. Statistics shown in these graphs are calculated from U.S. Air Force weather data, and are displayed in 12 month periods for the years 2000 through 2002, along with a normal (30-year average) line as reference. These graphs are representative of the entire area of Nueva Segovia.
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Cumulative Precipitation Graph |
Maximum Temperature Graph |
Deforestation In Nicaragua
Illegal logging is widespread in the highland forests of Nicaragua. Law enforcement officials are hard-pressed to halt the practice, which fosters depletion of soil moisture. These de-forested swaths of land are candidates for spontaneous ignition by high temperatures or lightning strikes. Producer associations and local government have stepped up campaigns to curb traditional practices such as using fire to carve out new areas for planting, or burning away debris prior to cultivating the land for the next crop cycle. "Clearing by fire" by the villagers can result in runaway fires that wipe out villages and economically hamstring rural communities that engage in agriculture for food and income. One unofficial estimate holds that up to 85 percent of the people in rural Nicaraguan communities use wood for cooking and heating, and these wood gatherers are at high risk to spark fires inadvertently.
The threat of fire has been further advanced by the pine bark beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis (more information on beetles), that continue to assault Central American forests. Belize suffered an outbreak in the 1990s that has since been contained, but the beetle is a growing problem in Honduras and Guatemala. Nicaragua may have the biggest pine bark beetle problem in terms of area (7 million trees affected); efforts to abate the pest have yielded mixed results. Clear-cutting is one accepted method to limit the spread of the beetle. Legitimate business people are allowed to glean this lumber, but the international market price is so low that legitimate businesses cannot sell the product for a break even price. Illicit traffickers do not face this problem. Illegal logging is driven by demand from an international black-market where cash is plentiful; conversely, the local marketplace has been saturated by all the cut lumber left laying around in the cleared space, and the local Nicaraguans lack the resources to move the lumber to markets outside the country. Even then, it is doubtful that a legitimate businessman’s breakeven price could compete with cutthroat pricing by the Central America black-market.
With the lessons of Hurricane Mitch (October 1998) still being learned in local and national jurisdictions, the GON has announced a plan for the expenditure of over U.S.$1 million toward the anticipated fires in spring and summer of 2002. Some of that money is directed toward the construction of observation platforms and the organization of citizens groups who will continuously watch for fire hazards. Funds have also been designated for the acquisition of medicine and medical equipment to be used should these events come about. Indications are that sufficient manpower is present to meet the challenge of a difficult 2002 forest fire season, but limited equipment and transportation may reduce manpower effectiveness.
Nueva Segovia is one of the many regions of northwest Nicaragua that have been badly affected by the worldwide coffee glut, as small scale producers there depend upon cash from coffee to finance the planting of basic grains and non-traditional crops. Loans from any source are hard to find, so that even purchasing disease- and drought-resistant seeds is beyond the means of most. Producer associations work hard to obtain assistance from international aid organizations to fill the gap between what the cash-strapped country can provide, and what is necessary for small producers to survival.
>> Hurricane Mitch Reconstruction Monitoring: May 2001 Trip Report
>> Nicaraguan Production: see FAS Crop Estimates
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