March 26, 2002 

Argentina: Field Travel Shows Mixed Soybean Yields

Personnel from FAS/Washington and FAS/Buenos Aires traveled through several key Argentine producing regions, assessing crop conditions in  late February-early March, 2002.  Discussions with government officials, exporters, input providers, traders, and producers, plus field travel by the team, are the basis of this report.  The team emphasized gathering information for the 2001/02 soybean, corn, and cotton crops.  Field travel included the main soybean and corn growing areas of central Argentina.  Additional field travel occurred in northern Argentina’s Chaco Province, to assess cotton and soybean conditions.

Soybean Production Estimates

Observed fields had a broad range of estimated yields.  In central Argentina, field estimates of first-crop soybean yields ranged between 1.5 and 4.0 tons per hectare.  The lowest yield estimates were in a hail-damaged area.  Yields for second-crop soybeans ranged between 1.2 and 3.0 metric tons per hectare. A broad range of growth stages were observed, partly due to the late planting of first-crop soybeans in areas that had been flooded.  Somewhat reduced yields are expected for late-planted first-crop soybeans and the second-crop soybeans. 

USDA's estimate of Argentina’s 2001/02 soybean production is at a record 28.75 million metric tons in March 2002, unchanged from February’s report.  Soybean yields are estimated at 2.59 tons per hectare.  Soybean harvested area is estimated at a record 11.1 million hectares.   Soybean harvest has started in northern Argentina.

Field Visits

The FAS team traveled through central Argentina February 27-March 2, 2002, assessing crop conditions in this major soybean and corn-growing region.  The areas for field visits in central and northern Argentina combine to account for over 5.4 million hectares, or 48 percent of the total soybean planted area. 

The field visits took the team through seven delegations in Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, and Cordoba Provinces; the delegations of Bragado, Junin and Pergamino in Buenos Aires Province; Casilda, Canda de Gomez, and Venado Tuerto delegations in Santa Fe Province; and the delegation of Marcos Juarez in Cordoba Province.  These areas account for over 4.8 million hectares or 42 percent of the total soybean planted area in Argentina, but only 18 percent of the corn area.  Conditions were assessed at semi-randomly selected fields, stopping every 10 kilometers, and choosing the field with the easiest access.  Information regarding crop type, crop stage, crop yields, digital photos, and comments regarding the field were collected.  Field data was geo-referenced using a hand-held global positioning system (GPS) unit.  The route through the agricultural area was not randomly selected.  Soil moisture conditions as of February 18, 2002 were used to stratify the sample and poor soil moisture conditions (21 to 30 percent total column soil moisture) and adequate soil moisture conditions (31 to 71 percent total column soil moisture) areas were selected.

Travel in northern Argentina’s Chaco Province was on March 4 and 5, 2002.  Over 50 percent of Argentina's total cotton area in 2001/02 is in Chaco Province, but only 5 percent of the national soybean area.  Crop conditions for cotton and soybean were assessed in the main cotton and soybean areas in Chaco Province.  Soybeans are growing in importance in Chaco Province, with soybean area more than five times larger than the cotton area. 

Soybean Season to Date

Rainfall for the main soybean areas of central Argentina has been at times too much and at times too little. The 2001/02 seasonal weather in Marcos Juarez delegation (the most important soybean delegation in Argentina), Cordoba Province, shows excessive rain before planting, a period of dryness in December followed by heavy rain at the end of January, a dry spell for most of February, and the most recent rains in March.  Rafaela delegation, Santa Fe Province, has a similar pattern to Marcos Juarez, but the dryness was more prolonged in January and February.  Poor yields are expected for this delegation. Pergamino delegation, Buenos Aires Province, had a more even distribution of rainfall than in Marco Juarez, but still had periods of below normal.  Even in the driest areas, however, temperatures this season have been moderate, helping reduce soil moisture losses.  Rainfall for last year’s soybean crop was more evenly distributed.  For the 2000/01 season, Marcos Juarez, had no dry periods in December and the dryness in February was short lived.  In Rafaela, last year’s pattern was much more beneficial.  In Pergamino, good rains in January contrast with this year’s pattern.

The dryness in some areas caused soil moisture deficits, which hindered both first- and second-crop soybeans from achieving yields similar to levels achieved the last two years.  However, rapid adoption of no-till technology, which conserves soil moisture, has lessened the effect of the dryness, unlike during the 1996/97 drought.  Additionally, ample reserves of soil moisture from early November rains are in contrast to the 1996/97 season.

First-crop soybean yields are expected below last year’s levels, but the yield decline is anticipated to be minimal.  First-crop soybeans had good conditions at flowering, pod set and early pod fill.  At the end of pod fill, however, dryness affected the filling out of beans in areas of Cordoba Province.  This was noted in the field by the smaller-than-expected bean size in sampled pods in some of the fields.  For first-crop soybeans that were planted on time and received ample rainfall such as the fields near Rojas, the soybeans were tall and had abundant pods.  The range of growth stages that were observed for first-crop soybeans varied from dry-down to the end of flowering where the canopy had not closed yet. Some first-crop soybean fields that we observed were planted very late and have yield potentials similar to second-crop soybeans.

Second-crop soybean yields are expected below average based on our field observations.  Observed fields for second-crop soybeans were generally shorter than expected, ranging in height from 10 to 24 inches.  Some fields were not yet higher than the wheat stubble, yet other fields were waist high.  Some fields were patchy, perhaps due to the ponding from the heavy spring rains.   Since the conclusion of field travel, rains have been beneficial in central Argentina, improving yield prospects for second-crop soybeans. 

Record Soybean Area

The excessive rains in October and November had an overall positive affect on total soybean area.  The heavy rains caused flooding in central Argentina and prevented planting of corn and sunflower.  Farmers chose to plant soybeans on some of this area.  A record planted area of 11.3 million hectares is estimated, but some sources are using estimates that are 200,000 to 600,000 hectares higher.  Opinions vary on planted area due to the rapid increase in soybean area in northern Argentina, and to the Argentine farmers’ use of saved seed from previous seasons.  It is legal to save seed from genetically modified varieties such as Roundup Ready Soybeans, and more than half the producers save seed.

Soybean area has increased because the costs of production are lower than many alternative crops such as rice, cotton, and corn.

This advantage has led to an increase in soybean area in central Argentina as corn area and pasture decrease and in regional areas where cotton and rice once dominated. 

Soybean Area Increases Expected for Next Year

For next year’s crop (2002/03), several factors favor increases in soybean area at the expense of other crops.  In addition to the advantage the costs of production give to soybeans, the newly instituted export tax of 10 percent on raw goods and 5 percent on processed goods,  favors commodities that can be processed in-country such as soybean meal, soy oil, sunflower meal, sunflower oil, and wheat flour.  Corn, cotton and rice face a 10 percent tax.  The currency devaluation affects soybean farmers in two ways: soybeans are the low cost, low input choice, making soybean planting more attractive.  Secondly, the unstable devaluation—the Argentine peso has fallen versus the U.S. dollar by 74 percent since early January—means that soybean producers will hold on to their physical commodity and sell only what is needed to satisfy cash-flow demands.  The incentive to hold their crop will change when either the currency stabilizes or the producers need to sell product to buy inputs for next year’s crop which is in June or July.  

These factors will likely result in a very slow marketing of Argentina’s soybean.  Storage capacity for Argentina will not be a problem for the nation as a whole.  According to the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, storage capacity exceeds 57 million tons.  In some places where crop growth has outpaced storage production there will be an incentive to move product more quickly. 

For more information, contact Robert Tetrault
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, Center for Remote Sensing Analysis at (202) 690-0130.