December 12, 2001

Pakistan:  Dry Conditions in Winter Grain Areas

Current Conditions Summary

Pakistan's winter wheat season begins with below-normal autumn rainfall accumulation in the Punjab. The Sindh remains dry.  However, prospects for the winter grain season will depend heavily upon winter snows in the Indus river basin, the key source of irrigation water. 

Good Start to Winter Grain Season in Punjab

Dry conditions over the agricultural area will mainly affect the rainfed field crop production.  However, the vast majority of Pakistan's winter wheat is grown on irrigated land. Irrigation supply is dependent on a few large reservoirs.  The main Tarbela reservoir is recharged by the Indus River inflow.  In contrast, production capacity of pasture land, which is strictly rainfed, has been severely affected by three consecutive seasons of drought.  Recovery prospects are dim if conditions do not improve.  Pakistan's winter grain crop is typically planted from October through November, depending upon summer crop harvesting schedules, and relies on timely autumn rains.  The majority of the winter grain crop is produced in the two provinces of Punjab and Sindh. The Punjab typically produces over 80 percent of the total winter grain crop including wheat.  The Punjab is currently below normal for cumulative precipitation in agricultural areas for the time period of October 1 through December 12.

Current analysis of Pakistan's crop areas indicate low irrigation reserves and low soil moisture conditions in the Sindh.  Though reservoir levels remain low, the impact of this will become more apparent later in the growing season.  Cumulative precipitation in the Sindh appears to be at the lowest observed level in several years, with virtually no recorded rainfall in recent months.  However, this is normally an arid area dependent upon tubewells and canal irrigation for crop production.

Rainfall during October and November is important to provide the proper conditions for germination and establishment for irrigated and rainfed crops.  Rainfall during this time also helps to conserve irrigation supplies for later application during the grain fill stage.  Wheat typically provides 72 percent (five-year average) of Pakistan's total grain production.  USDA refers to South Asian winter crops planted during October-November 2001 as the 2002/03 crop (official estimates will not be available until May 2002).  For the past ten seasons the winter wheat yield shows a significant upward trend, with last season's yield being a Pakistan record of 2.5 metric tons per hectare.