November 2, 2001

Winter Grain Planting Conditions in Pakistan:
Recent rains provide best start in four years

Current Conditions Summary:

Punjab Pakistan enters the winter wheat season with normal autumn rainfall accumulation. Sindh Pakistan remains dry.

Good Start to Winter Grain Season in Punjab

Pakistan has experienced dry conditions for three years.  This dryness has only impacted mostly the rainfed field crop production.  The majority of Pakistan winter wheat is grown on irrigated land. The majority of irrigation supplies come from a limited number of large reservoirs, the main reservoir is recharged by the Indus River inflow. In contrast, production capacity of pasture land, which is strictly rainfed, has been severely impacted by the drought.  Pakistan's winter grain crop is typically planted from October through November depending upon summer crop harvesting and, more importantly, on soil moisture conditions at planting time. The majority of the winter grain crop is produced in the two provinces of Punjab and Sindh. The Punjab typically produces over 80 percent of the total winter grain crop including wheat. Current analysis of Pakistan's crop areas indicated low irrigation reserves and low soil moisture conditions in the Sindh.  The situation is more positive in the Punjab.  Though reservoir levels remain low, the impact of this will become more apparent later in the season. However, the planting of Punjab's winter crops has benefited with the precipitation during the last two months. Cumulative precipitation in the Sindh appears to be the lowest in the past several years, with temperatures averaging about normal.  In the Punjab, cumulative precipitation for Pakistan's field crops for the time period of September 1 through November 1 show the agricultural zone at 96 percent of the long-term normal.  During 2000 for the same time period this area received less than 50 percent of normal precipitation.
 

Rainfall during the September through October period is important to provide the proper planting conditions and germination for irrigated and rainfed crops.  Rainfall during this time also helps to conserve irrigation supplies for later use. Wheat typically provides 72 percent (five-year average) of Pakistan's total grain production.  USDA refers to the South Asia winter wheat crops planted during in October-November 2001 as the 2002/03 wheat crop. Average daily temperatures for the agricultural region during the this time period are above normal and similar to last season.  For the past ten seasons the winter wheat yield shows a significant upward trend, with last season's yield being a Pakistan record of 2.5 metric tons per hectare.  The prospect for the upcoming winter grain season in Pakistan appears mostly positive, the exception are dry areas in the Sindh.