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November 9, 2001
All major grain-producing countries in the former Soviet Union harvested bumper grain crops this season. Total grain yield increased from last year by an estimated 20 percent in Russia, 33 percent in Ukraine, and 43 percent in Kazakstan. Several factors contributed to the high output: an increase in sown area in Russia and Ukraine, favorable weather in major growing regions throughout most of the growing season, and mostly dry harvest weather in all three countries.
Russian total grain production is estimated at 82.0 million tons (up from 65.5 million last year), including 44.5 (34.5) million wheat and 19.5 (14.1) million barley. This marks the third consecutive increase in the production of both wheat and coarse grains since 1998/99, when total grain output fell to 47.8 million tons, the lowest level in recent history. Although the U.S. agriculture attaché reported a slight increase in fertilizer and pesticide use this year, the high yield of the 2001/02 crop is attributed largely to favorable weather for most grain crops. Yield potential of corn and sunflowerseed was reduced by persistent drought in southern Russia during July and August, but the dryness facilitated rapid harvest of winter and spring grains and contributed to an increase in wheat quality. According to data from the State Grain Inspectorate cited by the Interfax news agency, 69 percent of the 2001/02 wheat crop -- roughly 31 million tons -- is food-grade quality, compared to roughly 23 million tons last year.
Ukraine total grain production for 2001/02 is estimated at 39.3 million tons, against 24.5 million last year. Wheat output skyrocketed to 21.0 million tons, from 10.2 million last year, due to a 37-percent increase in area -- the largest year-to-year increase in over twenty years -- and a 50-percent increase in yield. Estimated barley production jumped by 46 percent, from 6.9 to 10.0 million tons, following an 11-percent increase in area and a 31-percent increase in yield. Corn harvest is nearing completion, and reported yield is surprisingly high, in view of the excessive heat and dryness that prevailed throughout Ukraine's key summer-crop region while the crop was progressing through the reproductive and grain-fill stages. Corn production is estimated at 3.2 million tons, down 0.6 million from last year.
According to a report from the U.S. agricultural attaché, the Kazakstan Ministry of Agriculture announced total grain production at 18.4 million tons (bunker weight, prior to cleaning and drying), including 15.2 million wheat. Some analysts estimate that the bunker-weight output will drop by as much as 15 percent after drying, compared to the typical 7 percent, due to the high moisture content of the grain this year. Furthermore, local observers indicate that grain quality is down from last year. The USDA estimates Kazakstan total grain production at 16.0 million tons, including 13.0 million wheat. As in Russia and Ukraine, the 44-percent increase in wheat yield was due largely to favorable weather, but the attaché report also cites increased government subsidies for fuel, chemicals, and farm equipment.
