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November 2, 2001
A recent cold snap likely had little or no significant impact on winter wheat in Russia and Ukraine, even though the crop had not finished advancing through the hardening process, during which the crop prepares to enter dormancy. During the past week, temperatures dropped to roughly five degrees Celsius below zero throughout the prime winter wheat areas of Russia and Ukraine, but the weather was not cold enough for a long enough period of time to result in winterkill. (See temperature graphs for southern Russia, the central Volga Valley, central Ukraine, and eastern Ukraine.)
As of October 31, surface soil moisture was adequate throughout the winter grain regions of Russia and Ukraine, although analysis of total soil moisture indicates some areas of dryness in south-central Ukraine. In general, however, soil moisture is higher than at this time last year, and both moisture and temperature conditions have been favorable for germination and establishment.
According to figures released by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture and reported by the Interfax news agency, sown winter crop area for 2002/03 stood at 16.4 million hectares as of October 22, roughly two million hectares higher than by the same date last year. (Winter grains typically comprise about 90 percent of winter crop area.) In Ukraine, sown winter crop area is forecast to match last season's 7.1 million hectares, according to data from the government press service cited by the Reuters news agency. Fall sowing is usually largely complete by the end of October, except for the southern fringe of Russia's winter grain zone, where planting can continue into early November.
For more information, contact Mark
Lindeman
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on
(202) 690-0143.
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