November 19, 2001

Northwest Africa:

Widespread Autumn Rains Arrive, Signaling the Start of Fall Planting; Localized Downpours Leave Hundreds Dead from Rain and Mudslides in Algeria

Current Conditions Summary

Heavy-to-moderate rains spread across most of northwest Africa during the second week of November.  Rainfall was greatest along the western coast of Algeria and along a localized area of the central coast in the capital city, Algiers. The death toll in Algeria, primarily from the ensuing flash floods and mudslides in Algiers itself, is reported at between 700 and 1,000 people.  Fortunately, the torrential rains were concentrated in a couple of pockets along the coast within fifty miles of shore, while more moderate, beneficial rains were spread across the the majority of the agricultural lands.  

Heavy Rainfall in Populated Areas

In several coastal locations 100 mm (4 inches) or more fell in just two days, and in Algiers, 100 mm fell in just a few hours on November 10^th.  Algiers received a total of 227 millimeters (9 inches) during the week of November 7-13^th.  In Oran, along Algeria's northwestern coast, 155 millimeters (over six inches) was recorded in only two days.  

Beneficial Rain in Key Agricultural Areas

Even though the storm's tragic effects were felt in localized coastal areas, the recent rainfall greatly benefited topsoils in the region (from eastern Morocco to Tunisia), creating a good start to the winter grains (bread wheat, durum wheat and barley) planting season.  While precipitation was falling across the Maghreb Countries during the second week of November, some highly beneficial, soaking rains also fell on far eastern Morocco and all of Algeria.  Planting delays can be expected until dry weather can evaporate excess surface moisture.  

Autumn rains indicate the end of the dry season and mark the beginning of the winter grains season.  Typically, wheat and barley planting begins between mid-November and the end of January, depending upon the timing of the rains.  With good conditions early in the season, optimistic expectations are probably being raised in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia for the 2002/03 harvest.  However, the region has suffered from drought two to three times in as many years.  Subsoil moisture levels, critical to sustaining plant growth, will need additional rainfall.  

Supporting data: 

Rainfall in Oran, Western Algeria highlighting the two day total of 155 mm.

Rainfall for Several Stations in Western Algeria during the first weeks of November.

Cumulative Rainfall for the Last Three Years (vs. normal) at the start of the growing season, averaged for all of northern Algeria (the agricultural areas). This graph shows the arrival of the Autumn planting rains.

Surface Moisture as of November 14th, 2001 in Northwest Africa vs. Nov. 14th, 2000.

Current Weather in Northwest Africa

For more information, please contact Bryan Purcell with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0138. email: purcellb@fas.usda.gov