November 9, 2001

Brazil: Dry Weather Promotes Accelerated Soybean Planting

Pre-Planting Weather

Brazil experienced a drier start to the 2001/02 summer growing season than last year, with moderate showers falling primarily in the far southern and northwestern states during the July-September pre-planting period. Overall national rainfall was below normal, and much below levels received in 2000/01. The primary exception was the state of Matto Grosso, where spring rainfall was above normal and much above 2000/01. A return to normal seasonal rainfall conditions is now required across the bulk of country to guarantee favorable growing conditions for the newly sown 2001/02 soybean crop.

October Conditions

October rainfall conditions were highly variable, with most of the accumulated moisture falling during the first week. Thereafter, generally dry conditions prevailed through the end of the month. The net result was that significant areas of the soybean-growing region are currently deficient in moisture, with young emerging crops susceptible to stress. Though it is still very early in the season, dry conditions are a concern in Goias, Minas Gerias, Sao Paulo, Parana, and Santa Catarina.

Soil moisture models have mirrored the overall rainfall pattern, indicating that surface soils began to rapidly dry out in all states south and east of Matto Grosso as the month of October progressed. The worst conditions are presently in Minas Gerias, southern Goias, and western Sao Paulo.

Planting Progress

The prevalence of drier than normal weather in October has provided growers the opportunity to sow the 2001/02 soybean crop early and rapidly. This is especially important in southern areas like Sao Paulo and Parana where growers want to harvest soybeans early this year and get their second crop of winter corn sown in time. The safrina, or winter corn crop, area is projected to increase over last year, owing to anticipation of a much-reduced main-season summer corn crop, strong domestic demand, and rising prices.

Soybean planting progress nationwide has accelerated in recent weeks and is well ahead of normal and that achieved last year. Official sources in Brazil indicate total plantings will exceed the 40 percent mark this weekend, well ahead of the 5-year average of 28 percent. Soybean area is forecast to increase in every state this year, with the strongest growth rate in the traditional southern states of Sao Paulo, Minas Gerias, and Santa Caterina. Soybean acreage in the traditional southern and southeastern states are forecast to account for roughly 51 percent of total soybean area, while the expansion states will account for 49 percent. This compares to figures in 1990/91 which indicated 71 percent of the national crop was sown in the traditional states and only 29 percent in the newly expanding center-west, north, and northeastern states.

For more information, contact Michael J. Shean
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on 202-720-7366


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