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October 15, 2001

Kazakstan:  Bumper Grain Crop Forecast 

According to Ministry of Agriculture data released late last week and reported by the Reuters news service, Kazak farms are on track to harvest roughly 18 million tons of grain (bunker weight, prior to cleaning and drying), which will likely translate into net-weight output of slightly over 16 million tons.  While total grain production of 16 million tons would not qualify as a record crop--Kazakstan gathered 21.7 million tons of grain in 1993/94 and 29.8 million the year before--yield could approach the record of 1.32 tons per hectare achieved in 1992/93.  

Although total precipitation has been higher during this harvest season than during either 1999 or 2000, the harvest campaign has proceeded without major problems.   The rainfall has not been persistent, and farmers have been able to take advantage of fairly extended periods of dry weather. Yield potential was particularly high this year in Kazakstan (and in neighboring Western Siberia, where roughly 40 percent of Russia's spring wheat is grown), following adequate precipitation during the growing season. 

Kazakstan grain area for 2001/02 is estimated at 12.7 million hectares, including 10.4 million of wheat.  Area dropped steadily between 1981/82 and 1999/00, as marginally productive land was taken out of grain production and diverted largely to pasture.  In 2000/01, area jumped nearly two million hectares from the previous year, to 12.7 million hectares, and 2001/02 area is estimated at about the same level.  (See USDA estimates of Kazakstan grain production.)  

For more information, contact Mark Lindeman  
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0143.

 

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