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October 1, 2001
World Cotton Production Rises Despite Low Prices
Summary
World cotton production for 2001/02 is forecast at 96.2 million 480-pound bales, 9 percent above last year's output, despite low prices when many producers were making planting decisions. The Cotlook A-Index averaged 51.6 cents per pound, the lowest in the past five years, for the last six months of the 2000/01 season. Strong output has pushed prices down even further, falling to a recent historical low of 42.4 cents in the second month of the 2001/02 marketing season. Global area is forecast at 34.0 million hectares, up 7 percent from last season, while global yield at 616 kilograms per hectare is up 2 percent.
Low Prices Not Affecting Output
The price of cotton is not driving the increase in area and production (see price graph). The world's largest cotton producers, the United States and China, are projected to account for 45 percent of global production, up from last year's 42 percent. The percent share of production for the seven major producers was nearly unchanged from last year. In the table below, this report highlights the top seven cotton producing nations which include China, United States, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and Brazil. These countries are estimated to produce 75.9 million bales of cotton this season and account for more than 79 percent of 96.2 million bales output for 2001/02.
Other factors Increasing Supply
The global expansion in area and production is primarily in the United States, China, and India. Combined, they account for 90 percent of 7.9 million bale increase over 2000/01. In the United States, producers are expanding area in response to government programs that favor cotton over other crops. China's farmers are planting more Bt cotton, allowing area in North China Plain that had been diverted to other crops because of insect infestations, to return to cotton. Also, domestic prices favored cotton over alternative crops at planting time in China. India had a good monsoon this year, boosting yields and more area to be sown.
| MAJOR COTTON PRODUCERS | ||||||
| 480-LB BALES | PERCENT OF | YIELD | AREA
IN HECTARES |
PERCENT OF | LINT MT | |
| Millions | Output | (Kg/ha.) | Millions | Area | Millions | |
| 2001/02 | ||||||
| WORLD | 96.2 | 100 | 616 | 34.0 | 100 | 20.9 |
| FOREIGN | 76.2 | 79 | 586 | 28.3 | 83 | 16.6 |
| TOP SEVEN | 75.9 | 79 | 668 | 25.1 | 74 | 16.5 |
| China | 23.0 | 24 | 1,043 | 4.8 | 14 | 5.0 |
| United States | 20.0 | 21 | 761 | 5.7 | 17 | 4.4 |
| India | 12.5 | 13 | 314 | 8.7 | 25 | 2.7 |
| Pakistan | 8.3 | 9 | 602 | 3.0 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Uzbekistan | 4.5 | 5 | 685 | 1.4 | 4 | 1.0 |
| Turkey | 3.9 | 4 | 1,213 | 0.7 | 2 | 0.8 |
| Brazil | 3.8 | 4 | 1,021 | 0.8 | 2 | 0.8 |
| Rest-of-World | 20.3 | 21 | 495 | 8.9 | 26 | 4.4 |
| MAJOR COTTON PRODUCERS CHANGE From 2000/01 |
||||||
| 480-LB BALES CHANGE From 2000/01 | SHARE OF CHANGE | AREA HARVESTED CHANGE From 2000/01 | SHARE OF CHANGE | |||
| Millions | (%) | (%) | Millions | (%) | (%) | |
| WORLD | 7.9 | 9 | 100 | 2.1 | 7 | 100 |
| FOREIGN | 5.1 | 7 | 64 | 1.7 | 6 | 79 |
| TOP SEVEN | 7.3 | 11 | 92 | 1.8 | 8 | 86 |
| China | 2.7 | 13 | 34 | 0.8 | 20 | 38 |
| United States | 2.8 | 16 | 36 | 0.4 | 8 | 21 |
| India | 1.6 | 15 | 20 | 0.5 | 7 | 26 |
| Pakistan | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 0.1 | 2 | 3 |
| Uzbekistan | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Turkey | 0.3 | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 7 | 2 |
| Brazil | -0.4 | -9 | -4 | -0.1 | -11 | -5 |
| Rest-of-World | 0.6 | 3 | 8 | 0.3 | 3 | 14 |
