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September 14, 2001
USDA estimates Russian grain production for 2001/02 at 74.9 million tons, compared to 65.5 million in 2000/01. Wheat production is estimated at 41.5 million tons, up 3.0 million from last month, and 7.0 million from last year. Barley output is forecast at 16.0 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month, and 1.9 million from last year. Harvest is roughly two-thirds complete, and reports from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that the total grain yield as of September 4 is the highest since 1991. (Prior to the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, harvest reports were not issued for the individual republics.) Harvest is underway in the Urals region and Western Siberia, Russia's spring wheat zone. The yield potential of spring wheat is relatively high following favorable weather during the growing season, but likely not as high as in 2000/01, when grain yield in western Siberia climbed to the highest level in over ten years. Harvest will continue throughout October, and final output will depend in part on harvest weather.
Ukraine's 2001/02 total grain production is estimated at 34.6 million tons, up from 24.5 million last year. Wheat production is estimated at 20.0 million tons, nearly double last year's 10.2 million. The wheat harvest is essentially complete. According to the State Statistical Committee, Ukrainian farms gathered 21.7 million tons of wheat, prior to cleaning and drying. (Moisture and waste generally comprise 5 to 8 percent of "bunker" weight.) Barley output is estimated at 8.0 million tons, up from 6.9 million last year.
Corn and sunflowerseed production in both Russia and Ukraine are forecast to fall sharply from last year following persistent dryness and excessive heat throughout July and August, when the crops were advancing through the reproductive and grain-fill stages. Ukraine corn production for 2001/02 (2000/01) is estimated at 2.0 (3.8) million tons, and sunflowerseed production at 2.3 (3.5) million. Russian corn production is estimated at 0.8 (1.6) million tons, and sunflowerseed at 2.7 (3.9) million. Estimated sunflower area dropped from last year in both countries, from 4.6 to 3.8 million hectares in Russia and from 2.8 to 2.5 million in Ukraine.
Estimated Kazakstan wheat production for 2001/02 is unchanged from last month at 11.0 million tons (9.1 million last year). Wheat area is estimated at 10.4 (10.5) million hectares. The forecast wheat yield of 1.06 tons per hectare is higher than last year's above-average 0.87 tons per hectare, but substantially lower than in 1999/00 when yield reached 1.28 tons per hectare and 11.2 million tons of wheat was harvested from only 8.7 million hectares.
For more information, contact Mark Lindeman
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on
(202) 690-0143.
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