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August 31, 2001
Somalia’s corn and sorghum harvest in August is estimated below average due to a drought in the Horn of Africa. Most of the drought extends throughout the arid and semi-arid regions of eastern Africa, which has greatly affected the grazing lands and water supplies of pastoralists living in Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, and Somalia. The spatial extent of the drought, for the most part, does not extend into the highland agricultural areas in Kenya and Ethiopia, but the drought has profoundly affected the crop areas in southern Somalia. Recently, a Ministry of Agriculture official from Somalia appealed for international assistance due to severe drought in Awdal, Togdher, Nugal, Mudug, Galgudud, Hiran, Gedo, Middle Juba, and Lower Juba regions.
Figure 1. Seasonal Rainfall (April 1-August 20, 2001) in Southern Somalia
Seasonal rainfall data from April 1-August 20, 2001 indicate that main “Gu” rain season in southern Somalia was below normal in almost all crop areas, except for some parts of Middle Juba and Gedo (Figure 1). However, crop production is also reported below average in Middle and Lower Juba regions due to fighting and the use of landmines that discourage subsistence farmers from returning to their farms. Figure 2 shows the general economy and location of the corn and sorghum regions, as well as the rainfed and irrigated regions located between and along the Juba and Shebelle rivers, respectively.
Figure
2. General Food Economy in Southern Somalia
The main Gu rains for 2001 arrived on scheduled in late March, but below-normal rains during May and June contributed to the below normal rainfall and crops. Most of the corn and sorghum was harvested in August and crop failures are reported in the rainfed sorghum regions of Bay and Bakol. However, crops within the irrigated areas along the Shebelle and Juba rivers did not fail largely due to extensive canal rehabilitation carried out by CARE, WFP, Water for Life and other groups. Despite good harvests for the past two growing seasons, southern Somalia is again experiencing food shortages and it is compounded by continued insecurity.
Scout reports from the Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU) estimated the 2001 Gu harvest for southern Somalia at 110,700 metric tons (MT), or down 52 percent from last year and down 38 percent from the post war (1993-2000) average. Last year’s Gu 2000 harvest for corn and sorghum was estimated at 212,308 MT, well above the post war (1993-2000) production average of 179,900 MT for southern Somalia. The Deyr rains are from October to November and they typically account for 25 percent of the annual cereals production. The Deyr rain season is usually less reliable than the Gu rains due to shorter duration and uneven seasonal distribution.
United Nations Somalia
http://www.unsomalia.org/
Relief Web, Integrated Regional Information Networks
http://www.reliefweb.int/IRIN/cea/countrystories/somalia/20010829.phtml
http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/480fa8736b88bbc3c12564f6004c8ad5/76aa615dff3c883fc1256ab60054bc68?OpenDocument
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, African Climate Products
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/threatsimage.html
Rainfall Estimates and Long-term Rainfall Averages for Africa
http://edcintl.cr.usgs.gov/adds/data.php
http://cres.anu.edu.au/outputs/africa.html#climate
For more information, contact Curt Reynolds with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division at (202) 690-0134 or e-mail ReynoldsC@fas.usda.gov.
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