August 09, 2001

Indian Monsoon: 

Monsoon Season Midway Point Summary

Summary
The southwest monsoon provides 80 percent of India’s annual precipitation and is critical to the development of its major crops, including rice, coarse grains, cotton, peanuts, and soybeans.  As of early August, the monsoon is half over for this season.    A comparison of precipitation, this season versus last, shows overall less rainfall as of August 1, but the timing and distribution appear better for agriculture production particularly in the central-western states of Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.  These states experienced drought conditions during the previous two years.  If a good kharif crop is to be harvested, consistent rains will be needed during the second half of the monsoon.

Rice Area of Concern:  Rainfall distribution  in the rice producing coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh  has been erratic and below normal. This resulted in planting delays and localized problems. Above-normal rain continued in Orissa, generating some concern about flooding.  Planted area is reported to have declined in Punjab and Haryana, the major rice surplus states, as some farmers there reportedly are switching to cotton.  However, in the other rice producing states the conditions are generally positive.

Peanut Regions

The longer term picture of the monsoon's overall performance shows that the southern peanut growing area in Andrah Pradesh is experiencing a season-long rainfall deficit.  However, the final outcome of this year’s Kharif (fall-harvested) crops will largely depend on rainfall distribution during the second half of August and September. The state of Gujarat produces approximately 30 percent of India's total crop.  This season's reversal of the long-term dry conditions in Gujarat has resulted in an expansion in planted area.   Dry conditions in the Raylaseema region of Andhra Pradesh and parts of Karnatakapartially offset the more positive conditions in Gujarat.  .  Final crop yields will depend on well-timed rains during August and September
 

Coarse Grain Regions

This coarse-grain map illustrates relative share (by area) of Kharif grains (millet, sorghum, corn) by weather subdivisions of India.  The vast majority of the coarse grain growing regions, particularly in the major producing areas in the states of Haryanan, Rajasthan, and Maharastra, have received normal or above-normal rain, which is aiding plant development.  Conditions for coarse grains appear good.

Monsoon Seasonal Shortfall

The nine subdivisions which received significantly less moisture than normal are North Interior Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka,  Raylaseema, Marathwada, Konkan & Goa, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Sub Himalayan West Bengal, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The normal withdrawal date of the south-west monsoon is late September for most regions.

Monsoon Performance Update: Week Ending Aug 1

Monsoon activity improved during the week ended August 1, as 17 of 35 weather subdivisions received normal or above normal rainfall, compared with 9 the previous week.  For the first time in several weeks, the rain deficient regions of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and the northeastern states received normal or above normal rainfall.  Most of central and western India, however, remained dry.  Heavy rains in Bihar caused localized flooding, while in flood-afflicted Orissa, rainfall was 40 percent below normal.     

More Information and on the Southwest Monsoon | top of page

Monsoon Background

The southwest monsoon typically enters the mainland over Kerala in the first week of June, moving  northward to cover the whole of India by mid-July. It starts withdrawing in mid-September. A successful southwest monsoon is crucial to the development of Indian agricultural production. It provides 80 percent of India's total precipitation and is critical to the development of major food and commercial crops, such as rice, coarse grains, pulses, peanuts, soybeans, and cotton. Planting of the largely rainfed Kharif (monsoon season) crops, which include rice, sorghum, corn, millet, peanut, soybeans, and cotton, begins after the monsoon firmly establishes itself. Planting continues through July and early August. Farmers in the northern rice surplus states of Punjab and Haryana, where irrigation is available, often complete rice transplanting prior to the monsoon arrival. 

This season's pre-monsoon or early-season rains in central, south, and east India should provide a favorable early season planting conditions for rice, soybeans, sorghum, and corn. 

Data and reporting provided by India Meteorological Department and USDA-FAS Agricultural Counselor's office in New Delhi, India. FAS-PECAD uses GIS technology to convert tabular IMD rainfall data into map images.

For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0135 or by e-mail at crutchfieldj@fas.usda.gov.