August 01, 2001

Indian Monsoon: 

Weakened Monsoon Diminishes Peanut Prospects

Summary
The southwest monsoon, which provides 80 percent of India’s annual precipitation and is critical to the development of its major crops (rice, coarse grains, cotton, peanuts, soybeans), has weakened over much of the subcontinent's interior. After an excellent mid-June performance, monsoon activity dwindled in central and far western India during the week ending July 18.  This area is home to production of all major kharif crops. For the week ending July 18 monsoon activity diminished with only 14 of 35 weather subdivisions recording normal or above normal rainfall, compared with 22 subdivisions in the previous week.  Precipitation was significantly below normal in West Madhya Pradesh, the Vidarbha and Marathwada regions of Maharashtra, most parts of  Andhra Pradesh, North Interior Karnataka and Kerala.  Orissa continued to receive heavy rains, worsening the flood situation, but minimal impact on the state's overall production is anticipated.  

The longer term analysis of monsoon performance reveals mostly positive conditions for the subcontinent. For the season overall, precipitation remained favorable with cumulative rainfall normal to above normal in 27 weather subdivisions.  The all-India area weighted average was 13 percent above normal.  Nationwide precipitation levels are beneficial with only localized areas of dryness, with the possible exception of the southern peanut area. 

Major Area of Concern: Peanuts
The longer term picture of the monsoon's overall performance shows that the southern peanut growing area in Andrah Pradesh is experiencing both a recent and season-long rainfall deficit.  However, the final outcome of this year’s Kharif (fall-harvested) crops will largely depend on rainfall distribution during the second half of August and September. The normal withdrawal date of the south-west monsoon is late September for most regions.
 

Monsoon Coverage in Coarse Grain (Millet, Sorghum, Corn) Crop Production Regions:
This coarse grain map illustrates relative share (by area) of Kharif rice by weather subdivisions with the states of India.  The vast majority of the coarse grain growing regions particularly in the major producing states of Haryanan, Rajasthan, and Maharastra have received normal or above-normal rain, which is aiding plant development.  Conditions for coarse grains appear excellent.

Monsoon Performance Update: Week Ending June 27
For the week ending July 18 monsoon activity diminished with only 14 of 35 weather subdivisions recording normal or above normal rainfall, compared with 22 subdivisions in the previous week.  Precipitation was significantly below normal in West Madhya Pradesh, the Vidarbha and Marathwada regions of Maharashtra, most parts of  Andhra Pradesh, North Interior Karnataka and Kerala.  Orissa continued to receive heavy rains, worsening the flood situation. 

More Information and on the Southwest Monsoon | top of page

Monsoon Background
The southwest monsoon typically enters the mainland over Kerala in the first week of June, moving  northward to cover the whole of India by mid-July. It starts withdrawing in mid-September. A successful southwest monsoon is crucial to the development of Indian agricultural production. It provides 80 percent of India's total precipitation and is critical to the development of major food and commercial crops, such as rice, coarse grains, pulses, peanuts, soybeans, and cotton. Planting of the largely rainfed Kharif (monsoon season) crops, which include rice, sorghum, corn, millet, peanut, soybeans, and cotton, begins after the monsoon firmly establishes itself. Planting continues through July and early August. Farmers in the northern rice surplus states of Punjab and Haryana, where irrigation is available, often complete rice transplanting prior to the monsoon arrival.. This season's pre-monsoon or early season rains in central, south, and east India should provide a favorable early season planting conditions for rice, soybeans, sorghum, and corn. 

Data and reporting provided by India Meteorological Department and USDA-FAS Agricultural Counselor's office in New Delhi, India. FAS-PECAD uses GIS technology to convert tabular IMD rainfall data into map images.

For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0135 or by e-mail at crutchfieldj@fas.usda.gov.