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August 31, 2001
Ukraine's 2001/02 grain harvest is on track to surpass last year's output by as much as 50 percent despite heavy June rainfall which reportedly destroyed 20 percent of crops in western and central Ukraine and a July drought which will likely reduce corn production by an estimated 25 percent. The harvest of "early" grains -- wheat, barley, rye, oats, and pulses -- is virtually complete, and Ministry of Agriculture harvest reports cite total grain yield of 2.93 tons per hectare, the highest since 1994 and nearly 50 percent higher than last year. The harvest of buckwheat and millet (which comprise only about 6 percent of total grain area) is underway, and corn harvest will begin in September.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the 2001/02 wheat harvest totaled 21.4 million tons, bunker weight (the weight before cleaning and drying). This would translate into net-weight production of roughly 20 million tons. Harvest-progress reports cite remarkably high preliminary yields for barley, and indicate that production could exceed 8 million tons. Final barley output, however, will depend on yields from western Ukraine, where heavy June rains reportedly damaged a significant portion of the grain crops. Although the wet June weather will have a negative impact on the share of milling-quality wheat from this year's harvest, which has already been hovering at a low level compared to ten years ago, Ukraine should be able to meet its goal of increasing 2001/02 grain exports (chiefly feed wheat and barley) to 6 million tons.
Ukraine corn production is forecast to drop sharply from last year's 3.8 million tons. In eastern Ukraine, the prime corn zone, persistent heat and dryness during July and August slashed yield potential. Agriculture Ministry officials have suggested that 2001/02 corn production won't reach 2.5 million tons.
View current USDA estimates of Ukraine grain production.
For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0143.
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